Türkiye`de ulusal kalkınma planlarının bölgesel ayrıştırılmasına yönelik bir yaklaşım

Abstract

özet Bugün Türkiyede uygulama alanı bulan planlama girişimleri, ulusal ölçekte ekonomik kalkınma planlaması, yerleşim birimlerini dar ve geniş kapsamda ele alan fiziksel.planlama, ve sektör ana planlarından oluşmaktadır. Ekonomik ve sosyal gelişmenin mekan da yansımasını yönlendirecek bölge düzeyinde planlama, ile ulu sal düzeydeki planlama yaklaşımlarının temel verilerini bölge ölçe ğine aktaracak bölgelerarası planlama aşaması gelişmemiştir. Mevcut eğilimlerin belirli bir süre devam edeceği varsayıldığın da, bölgesel dengesizliklerin artış göstermesi ve üretken yatırım ların belirli bölgelerde yığılması kaçınılmaz olacaktır. Artan bölgelerarası dengesizliklerin belirli bir süre sonra geliş meyi önleyici nitelik kazanması ve ortaya çıkan sorunların çözü münün karşılanamayacak düzeylere varması kaçınılmaz olmakta^ dır. Bu tez çalışmasının amacı, ulusal düzeydeki kalkınma plan larına bölgesel ölçekte mekan boyutunun katılması, yatırımların bölgesel gelişme hedefleri gözetilerek dağıtılmasının ekonomik ge«- lişme hedeflerini ne ölçüde etkilediğini belirlemek, ve bu tür bir yaklaşımın ekonomiye getirdiği yükün karşılanabilirliğini tartış maktadır. Bu amaçla, ulusal- sektöre! hedeflerle birlikte, bölgesel hedeflere en az giderle ulaşmayı sağlayacak üretim deseni, bir optimisazyon modeli yardımıyla araştırılmış ve sözkonusu model tanımlanan çeşitli bölgesel politikalara göre farklılaştırılmıştır. Çalışma sonuçlan, Dördüncü Beş Yıllık Plan Dönemi için be lirlenen hedeflerin bölgesel ayrıştırılması ve belirlenen bölgesel gelişme hedeflerine nasıl bir yatırım deseni ile varılabileceğinin XI

Summary The regional inequalities in Turkey, that can be defined by the indicators, interregional distribution of income per capita, human and natural resources, economic and social service activi ties, is one of the main problems in the process of socio-economic development. Also, if it is assumed that the existing trends will continue for a while, it is not possible to avoid the growing regional inequalities and the concentration of the production activities in certain areas. The attempts related to planning in Turkey at present, can be summarized as: the economic development planning at natio nal level, the physical planning that is concentrated on settlement units, and the sectoral master plans. The regional planning which will direct the socio-economic development at spatial scale and the interregional planning that will transfer the major decisions of the national planning to the regional scale are not developed. Obviously, any attempt related to regional development, have to deal with the development of the possible planning framework and the relations with the other levels of planning. The main objective of this study is the development of spatial dimension idea within the national development plans, evaluation of the level of effect of the regional development targets on the national rate of economic growth, and the analysis of the cost of this approach on the national economy. A regional disaggregation model that attempts to define, the distribution of regional production in different sectors that is reached by the minimum cost in accordance with the national production targets, is developed as the basic analytical tool. The XVmodel is a linear programming one, and the main constraints depend on -regional growth, and employment targets. For the re gional disaggregation, three different regional policies are defined and they are executed as the three alternatives in the study. The analytical framework mainly concentrates on the manu- facruring sectors, and these sectors are grouped into two. The first group of sectors are the regional sectors, and defined as the sectors that the production is equal to regional demand. The total production in these sectors should be equal to national demand for those products. The study has been developed in 3 sections. The different approaches related to the regional inequalities, the level of development and the general features of this process is summarized in Section I, and the differences in the approaches are indicated. The main trend in the theoretical and applied studies is, the need to encourage the attempts to decrease regional inequalities, and to integrate the spatial dimension within the planning system. In this stage, it can be observed that the most suitable scale of planning is the interregional planning which can facilitate the formation of a rational distribution of investments and formulates the major decision chains for the regional planning studies. This section also attempts to clarify the effects of planning, both at the national and the regional levels, on planning at inter regional level. In Section II a brief overview related to both theoretical and applied studies on interregional planning is presented. The main characteristics of the national planning model and the regional structure, and the possible effects of these characteristics on the interregional planning in the Turkish context have also been discussed in the same section. At the same time, Section II contains presentation of the proposed approach. The framework has been defined according to the starting points determined in the higher planning levels, and within this framework three alternatives which reflect the regional development targets have been elaborated. These alter natives have been defined as follows: Alternative I: «Protection XVIof the existing structure», Alternative II: «Equilibrium in the longrun» and Alternative III: «Equilibria in the rapid growth». Both the definitions of the dependent and the independent vari ables and the parameters that are used in the proposed model are helpful for the explanation of the framework. Section III, attempts to summarize the results of the analysis that is based on Turkish data. The distribution of the increases in income in the manufacturing sector at regional level, the costs of the regional policies in different alternatives, the capital require ments and employment opportunities have been discussed. This section, brings the hypothesis that there is a need to evaluate the interregional planning as a technical subject and the possibility to approach this subject in different contries and at different time sections in different ways* The major conclusion of this study can be summarized as follows; The regional development policies whic mainly depend on the concept of equilization, are also necessary for the rapid national economic growth, for the countries like Turkey which have reached a certain level of economic development». While the results of this study bring a set of a numerical findings that sup ports the above conclusion at the level of «goal setting», there are other basic results that is related to the general structure of Turkey. (1) The wide distribution of heavy goods producing indust ries on regional basis, brings a higher total cost to the economy. (2) The transportation costs are not the major determinant at the distribution of manufacturing production. (3) Within the existing structure, the cost of «protection existing regional structure» has a higher cost than the attempt «To reach regional equilibrium in the Perspective Planning Peri od» (20 years). (4) During a high rate of economic development period the attempts on regional equilization approach bring less cost than the period of economic stagnation. (5) The additional cost of the regional policy «Equilibrium in the rapid growth» is approximetaly 30 per cent higher than the ideal distribution of production, that is development of each sector at the least cost region. XVII