Konjonktür analizi

Abstract

BÖLÜM 1 GİRİŞ `Geminin bumu, içindeki yolcuların gidecekleri yönü gösterir ilkin, geminin önünü değil.` (Ö. Asaf, Yuvarlağın Köşeleri) Konjonktür analizi 70' li yıllardan itibaren ekonomik araştırmalarda tekrar ilgi odağı haline gelmiştir. Özellikle son yıllarda geniş bir konjonktür çevrimleri yazını göze çarpmaktadır. Bu artan ilgiye rağmen, kavram karmaşıklığı, teorik açıklamalarda anlaşmazlık ve belli bir teorik çerçeveden yoksun olarak sadece ampirik verilerle olguyu kavramaya çalışmak, son dönem araştırmaların bir çoğundaki ortak özellik olarak saptanabilir. Konu, kapsadığı alan bakımından oldukça geniş olduğu için, inceleren alan üzerinde daha seçici olmak durumunda kalındı. Bu doğrultuda konjonktür analizinin ve içerdiği kavramların, bunların arka planındaki uzun dalga ve kriz teorilerinden bağımsız olarak ele alınıp, özümlenemeyeceği düşüncesinde olmakla beraber, konunun sınırlandırılması gereğiyle kısa dönem çevrim analizi ve bunun teorisi üzerinde yoğunlaşıldı. Ayrıca konjonktür politikaları ve çevrim ölçme teknikleri de kapsam dışı bırakıldı. Bu şekliyle amaç, daha çok konjonktürel dalgalanmaların doğasını` anlamaya yöneliktir. Konunun işlenmesi bir anlamda şu sorulara cevap arama niteliğindedir : 1- Konjonktürel dalgalanmalar iktisadi yapı veya sistemin hareketi içinde kendilerini nasıl göstermektedirler, özellikleri nelerdir? 2- a) Konjonktürel dalgalanmalara dair gerçekçi ve tutarlı, neden-sonuç ilişkilerine dayalı bir açıklayıcı varsayımlar kümesi, yani teori nasıl oluşturulabilir? b) Böyle bir teoride hangi ekonomik değişkenler belirleyicidir ve bunların arasında ne gibi ilişkiler vardır?3- Söz konusu ekonomik değişkenlerin ve aralarındaki ilişkinin gelişimi nasıl gözlenebilir, hangi araçlarla izlenebilir? Yukarıdaki sorulara cevap arama sürecinde konu üç ana bölümde incelenmeye çalışıldı. Birinci bölümde bir yandan sayısal veri, gözlem ve grafiklere dayanarak olgunun nasıl `göründüğü` ile ilgilenildi. Diğer taraftan bulguların kavramlaştırılmasına ve kavramlar arasındaki ilişkilerin ortaya konmasına çalışıldı. İkinci bölümde konjonktürel dalgalanmaları inceleyebilmek için gerekli `teknikler` üzerinde -çok genel hatlarıyla- duruldu. Üçüncü bölümde hem tarihi gelişimleriyle hem de kendi aralarındaki benzer ve farklı yönleriyle mevcut konjonktür teorileri karşılaştırmalı olarak ele alındı. Son olarak bulguların sentezi niteliğinde olan bir yaklaşımla daha çok olgunun kaynağına inerek, bir dalgadan diğerine sürekli tekrarlanan, esas belirleyici değişken ve faktörler saptanmaya çalışılırken, belli bir dalgayı diğerinden ayrı kılan özgül faktörlerin neler olabileceği üzerinde de duruldu. Söz konusu araştırma, bu şekliyle `ekonomi gemisinin burnunun nereye dönük olduğunu kavramak için yazılmış bir deneme olarak da görülebilir.

ANALYSIS OF BUSINESS CYCLES Business cycles, one of the interesting themes of economic analysis has been touched in this thesis. The main intention of the author is to understand the `nature` of Business Cycles and to reveal the facts which lay behind them. Accordingly, the theme has been studied in three parts, The first part deals with the cyclical phenomena, the second part with `technical tools` to analyse it and the third part with the theories in historical perspective and also an alternative synthesis attempt. In the light of these three stages conclusions are drawn in the last section. First of all, it should be mentioned that business cycles are common to all industrialised- countries and a characteristic of the capitalist economic development. After they have been observed since the nineteenth century, the interest they gained displayed also a wave-like movement. Contrary to the post-war period where the business cycles were nearly discussed as `obsolete`, we are confronted in seventies with a huge literature of them. Though the subject comes into contact with other economic research areas like growth, economic policies, long waves etc., much is left out on purpose in order to concentrate on the `origins` of Business Cycles. The questions, the author sees himself confronted are: l)How could be a cyclical phenomena described and could be observed? 2) How could be a theoretical model constructed, which depends on realistically assumptions and relationships and which are explanatory enough? 3. ) Which economic variables are the determinants of these relationships. ? It has become customary to define business cycle phenomena as repented deviations of output from some trend and therelative behaviour of other aggregate time series. This trend displays the growth path of the economic development whereas the deviations from it refer to the existence of business cycles. If the time series of economic variables are observed, it is assumed that they are a ' function of four elements: Trend, Cyclical fluctuations, Seasonal fluctuations, and irregular movements. In order to distinguish business cycles from other components, first the series has to be seasonally adjusted and then de trended, so that the cyclical behaviour of the aggregate displays himself. Business Cycles should also be distinguished from other economic fluctuations. When all the described fluctuations are considered in connection with the length of different investment components and the technical innovations, it can be noticed that besides Business Cycles there are Construction Cycles, lasting 15-20 years and the so called `Long Waves` lasting 50-60 years. According to author's view, it is very important in the analysis of business cycles to take reflections and interactions into account which occur between Business Cycles and the Long Waves. There are two phases and in both phase there are several stages which embody a cyclical fluctuation. These phases are called upswing and downswing phases and the well-known stages of them are recovery and boom in an upswing phase and recession and depression in a downswing phase. After these basic concepts have been enlightened cyclical behaviours of some important economic aggregates have to be taken into consideration. The so called `stylised facts` are based mainly on a theoretical statistical analysis to find out broad regularities of the cyclical properties of key aggregate time series. These aggregates include output and its components, inputs to production and nominal variables. Through an statistical analysis of them (using standard deviations and correlation) it gives an information both an whether the series displays a phase shift (leading, coincident, lagging) relative to the overall business cycle. The results of these inquiries give a `starting point` to build on causal relationships. There are very critical viewpoints in the relevant literature especially on this kind of methodology which is also named as `Measurement without Theory`. According to the author's view they should be used for constructing or restructuring theories, but not instead of them. The empirical findings should be placed into an theoretical framework. And this framework should consist of key economic variables and relationships between them, and should also be based upon the priorities of the reasons which are pre-defined by the theorist. Following the above comments, the present Business Cycle theories are discussed in a comprehensive way considering their historical background and their differing approaches to the causes of the subject. In a historical perspective there are Classical School, Marxist School, Keynesion School and Neo-classical School with their eminent authors like Ricardo, Smith Marx, Keynes, Shumpeter, Hayek, Aftalion, etc. These authors and their theories differ themselves by answering the question: Can Business Cycles be explained by endogenous factors or by exogenous factors? According to their answers, some theorists put their view on the `external` factors like demographically developments and weather conditions whereas some others mean that business cycles are an accidental fact which can be considered as not important in the long term. On the other side according to some theorists the `internal` factors of the existing economic structures cause the business cycles and lead to over investment or under-consumption. Which factors -real or monetary- play the first role -is also a question that are differently answered by these theorists. Finally the need far a realistic synthesis of Business Cycle theories is recognised and therefore attempted. This approach is based on some assumptions: - Business Cycles are an expression of macroeconomic disequilibrium in accordance with the functioning of the economic structure. Therefore their explanations and causes should be made depending upon the internal and real factors of this structure. - As mentioned before the interaction between Long waves and Business Cycles should be highlighted in order to understand varying characteristics of Business Cycles across time. - The production processes between investment goods producing industries and consumption goods producing industries have to be considered in relation to the development of income distribution. Based on these assumptions the first step is to interpret some findings about the key economic variable GNP (Gross National Product) assumed as the best representative of economic activity and its components. If the development of time series of these components are observed, it is tobe found out that private consumption, government expenditures end net exports are nearly as volatile as Gross National Product, whereas total investment component displays three or four times more volatility than GNP. According to these observations of total investment and its components (inventory investments, business fixed investments, governmental investments, building investments) are focused. Among these the most volatile component is business fixed investment. The conclusion was the following: If the assumption that the investment component of the GNP is the most volatile one and therefore should be taken into account is right, then the causes of Business Cycles should be searched in the determinant of this component, especially in business fixed, investments. The determinant of business fixed investment are studied under some criterion. The objectives which motivate capital owners to invest are taken into account under two criterion: One of them is the capacity component and the other one is machinery equipment component. According to these criterion the investments are determined sequential to their priorities: - Movements in profitability - Demand developments - Price-wage-cost relationships - Developments of interest rates. As the last step in the light of discussed theories and evidence, it has been attempted to explain the development of Business Cycle since post-war period till now. The main economic variables on which it has been concentrated are GNP, profit-ratio, investment-ratio, consumption ratio, wage ratio, labour productivity and capital productivity. Business Cycles during this time have occurred in the background of a long growth-wave which consists of an ascending phase between 1950-1970 and of a descending phase from 1970 until now. The main determinant of business cycles in the ascending phase which can be described as a period with low unemployment rates and high growth rates, seems to be the lagging behaviour of growth of wage income and consumption relative to the growth of investment as a consequence of income distribution.But in the descending phase,. decreasing development of capital productivity has been observed. There are many reasons which led to the decrease of capital productivity. The main determinant of this changing influences are based upon the technological constraints in the long term. According to these influences interest rates became higher than the investment profitability which also played a very important role by transition from boom to recession. After this attempt of an synthesis has been made to explain the nature and the determinants of Businness cycles some following points should be noticed. The political developments, fluctuations of oil prices and some other raw materials can also influence a Business cycle. Monetary, financial and expectational developments are also influential factors. But all these factors have only one thing in common about this problem. They can at least determine the length and the degree of a Business cycle, but they can not cause them. The causes of it should be searched in the interaction between variables of real economic structure. Another critical point is that the authors of Business cycle theories after seventies are mainly concerned with theoretical possibilities rather than with explanations what actually happens. There is in general little regard for how the pieces fit each other or the real world. Therefore according to the authors view three analyses should come into contact in order to make realistic observations and explanations of Business cycles. These are the economic analyses, the historical analysis and the statistical analysis. After these research areas have been combined, it could be possible to find out how the pieces fit each other. A really satisfactory theory therefore, should explain how Business cycles are generated by the internal mechanism of an economy exposed to the impact of a great many potentially relevant external events. The last important point is that for future theoretical works Business cycles without seperating them from long growth wawes, should be researched concerning the reflections and interactions of them with long wawes. Only after this problem has been explained.the repeating and changing features of Business cycles across time, could become obvious. IV