A Study of Turkish export performance

Abstract

ÖZET TÜRK İHRACAT PERFORMANSINA AİT BİR ÇALIŞMA ZAHER.MOH'D YÜKSEK LİSANS TEZİ : EKONOMİ BÖLÜMÜ TEZ YÖNETİCİSİ : PROF. DR. HASAN OLGUN TEMMUZ 1989, 75 SAYFA Bu çalışma Türkiye'nin ekonomik kalkınması ve ihracatı arasında ki ilişkiyi araştırmıştır. 1960-1987 zaman-seri verileri ile yapılan regrasyon analizinde, Türk ihracatının ekonomik büyümeye olumlu etkisi anlatılmış ve dışa-açılmanın da gelişme sürecinde Önemli bir rol oynadığı vurgulanmıştır. Bu çalışmada, ayrıca, Türkiye'deki tasarruf eğiliminin dışa dönük ticaretin miktarıyla ve ihracattaki artış miktarıyla etkilendiği gösterilmiştir. Son olarak, Türk ihracatının performansının değerlendirilmesi yapılmıştır. Anahtar sözcükler : Dışa-dönük politika, İçe-dönük politika, İhracat performansı, Ekonomik büyüme. III

Chapter Six Summary and Conclusions 6. 1 Summary In this thesis, the Turkish export performance and its relationship with GNP growth rate has been analyzed using cross-section regression analysis in which GNP growth rate is regressed on labor, domestic investment, foreign investment, total savings, per capita income, and exports, and by examining the rank correlation coefficients between the variables which represent these two indicators of economic performance. The period of investigation chosen is 1960-1987. The analysis has been carried for the period 1960-1987 as a whole, and for the subperiods 1960-1972, 1973-1979, and 1980-1987 to adjust for the economic conditions and policy changes. The regression analysis consists of two main steps: first, regressing GNP growth rate on labor and total savings as a whole, or its components ( domestic and foreign). Then, simultaneously introducing exports growth rate to see what happens to the explanatory power of the regression equation and the regression coefficients of the individual variables. The introduction of exports is warranted on the grounds that exports tend to raise total factor productivity through its 73effects on resource al location, capacity utilization, and the exploitation of economies of scale. Since the method applied tends to underestimate the effects of export growth on the growth of GNP because exports expansion and domestic savings are beliefed to be positively correlated, a regression analysis has been carried to investigate the relationship between exports and domestic savings in Turkey for the period 1972-1983. The emperical results of the above estimation support the above evidence. 6.2 Conclusions The empirical results show that the outward-orientation Turkey adopted in 1980 has a positive effect on the growth performance. This resulted mainly from the large incentives schemes which were granted to exporters. This means that there exists a positive relationship between export incentives and export growth in Turkey, and that the rate of growth of exports is affected by the absolute value of exports in the base year. For that, a one percent increase in the rate of growth of exports was associated with 0.07 of one percent increase in GNP growth rate after 1980. On the other hand, there exists a high correlation between export expansion and the propensity to save in Turkey. The results also show that exports has a higher 74