Sosyal hesaplar matrisi ve Türkiye için bir uygulama

Abstract

ÖZET Bu çalışmada ekonominin bütününe ilişkin istatistiki bilgilerin, ekonominin işleyişini yansıtacak şekilde düzen lenmesini öngören Sosyal Hesaplar Sistemi'nin kuramsal temeli ile bu sistemin gösterim çizelgesi olan Sosyal Hesaplar Mat risi (SHM) nin yapısı incelenmekte ve 1973 verileri ile Tür kiye için bir SHM kurulmaktadır. Çalışmanın bu özellikleri, birinci bölüm olan Giriş bölümünde tanıtılmaktadır. -İkinci bölümde iktisadi' düşüncenin evrimi içinde ku ramsal çözümlemelerin nicel bilgilerle güçlendirilmesinin kısa bir tarihçesi yer almaktadır. Üçüncü bölümde, temel çatısı Leontief modeli ile Keynes modelinin bir arada ele alınmasıyla oluşan Sosyal Hesaplar Sisteminin (.SHS) kuramsal özü ve bu sistemin ilkelerinin ni cel yansıması olan Sosyal Hesaplar Matrisinin yapısı tanıtılmaktadır. SHS'nde tüm iktisadi faaliyetler hem gelirler, hem de har camalar yönünden ele alınırlar. Böylece, ekonominin kesimleri arasındaki karşılıklı ve içice ilişkilerin tümünün -kaps anması, diğer bir deyişle iktisadi ilişkilerin çevrimsel akım içinde ki konumları iti&ariyle 'ineelenmesi sağlanmaktadır. İktisadi kesimler ise- kaba Bir ayırımla;* ö.refciffl kesimiyle kurumlar, birikim ve' dış dünya kesimleridir.'SHM bu yaklaşımla düzenlenen bir istatistiki veriler kümesidir ve girdi-çtktı geleneğinden hareketle çift taraflı kayıt ilkesiyle kurulur. Yani SHM'nde her kesim için hem bir satır hem de bir sütun hesabı açılır. Kesimler al t-kesimlerine (örneğin üretim kesimi sektörlere) ayrı ş tır ı Idığmda hesap.. sayısının da artacağı açıktır. Dördüncü bölümde SHM'nin kullanım alanları üç ana grup ta toplanarak irdelenmektedir. Bir kere SHM ekonominin bütü nüne ilişkin tutarlı bir veri kümesi oluşturmanın aracı ola rak görülmektedir. İkinci olarak, SHM ekonominin belli bir yıldaki yapısını nicel anlamda -yansı tarak, iktisadi çözümleme lerin nicel dayanaklarını sağlam kılar~. Üçüncü olarak SHM öz deşliklere dayanan bir planlama modeli olarak kullanılabilir. Çalışmanın beşinci bölümünde yukarıda özetlenen kuramsal temele dayanarak oluşturulan Türkiye 1973 SHM tanıtılmaktadır. Türkiye SHM çalışmasında SHM'nin tutarlı veri kümesi oluşturma işlevine ağırlık verilmiştir. Bu nedenle bu bölümde önce SHS'nin Türkiye'deki gelişiminin bir değerlendirilmesi aracılığıyla çalışmanın gerekçeleri belirlenmiş ve çalışma sırasında yarar lanılan verilere değinilmiştir. Türkiye 1973 SHM üç aşamada kurulmuştur, SHM kurulur ken gözetilecek en önemli nokta milli gelir hesaplarıyla tutar lılığı sağlamak olduğu için ilk aşamada 1973 yılına ilişkin makro veriler ile Türkiye. 1973 SHM'nin genel yapısı oluştu rulmuştur. İkinci aşamada bu genel SHM'ne üretim faktörlerinin he sabı eklenerek bu hesap ile birlikte kurumlar hesabının alt hesap kalemleri tanımlanmıştır. Üretim faktörleri hesabı emek ve emek dışı faktörlerden oluşmaktadır. Kurumlar hesabında ise hane halkları ve devlet belirlenmiş ve hane halkları hesabı, tarımdaki hane halkları-», tarım dışındaki ücretliler ile tarım ve ücretliler dışındaki hane halkları olarak üç grupta elealınmışlardır. Bu ayrıştırmanın nicel dökümü ile elde edilen SHM 9x9 boyutlarmdadır. Üçüncü ve son aşamada ise üretim faaliyetleri kesimi 25 sektör ? itibarıyla ayrış tırı İmi ş tır. Bu işlemlerin sonucunda elde edilen SHM 33x33 boyutlarmdadır. Altıncı bölümde Türkiye 1973 SHM ile sunulan yeni veri kümeleri tanıtılmaktadır: Yerli girdi-çıktı tablosu (25x25 bo yutunda}, yatırımların ve kurumların tüketim kalıplarının yurt içi- üretim sektörleri itibarıyla dökümü, kurumların gelirleri nin ve tasarruflarının bileşimi. Yedinci bölümde Türkiye 1973 SHM, 1973 Türkiye'sinin iktisadi yapısının irdelenmeğinde kullanılmaktadır. Türkiye 1973 SHM'nin kendinden önce ve sonra herhangi bir SHM ile kar şılaştırılması olanaksız olduğundan çalışmanın bulguları, bir dönem için değil sadece 1973 yılı için çözümlenmiştir. Çalışmanın sekizinci v-e son bölümünde ise Türkiye 1973 SHM nin özgül nitelikleri özetlenmekte ve çalışma sırasında yararlanılan istatistik kaynaklarının bir değerlendirmesi ya- pılarak, uygulamalı araştırmalarda karşılaşılan* veri sorununun nedenlerine değinilmektedir. Türkiye 1973 SHM'nin en önemli özelliğ.i, öncelikle eko- `j nominin genel dengesine ilişkin milli gelir büyüklükleriy le uyum-lu olan, dolayı sıyla. makro büyüklüklerin mikro temellerine ine- / bilmeyi sağlayan alt veri kümelerinin türet ilmesiyle Türkiye ekonomisi için ilk deneme olmasıdır, Türkiye. 1973 SHM nicel bilgilere ilişkin bu katkının yanısıra Türkiye ekonomisinin 1973 yılındaki yapısını bütün cül bir bakış açısıyla yansıtma niteliğini de taşımaktadır.

THE SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX AND AN APPLICATION FOR TURKEY 'SUMMARY The main purpose of this study is. to wo`'rk out the theoretical foundations of.the System of Social Accounting- (SSA) and to apply the data framework suggested by the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) to the case of Turkish statistics. r The Social Accounting concept, coined by J. R. Hicks in 1942, embodies the development of the national income accounting in such a w,ay that the circular flow nature of the economic system can be traced in terms of the functions of the economic agents. Thus, the system of social accounting proposes a framework to disaggregate national accounts making use of the principles of double-entry book-keeping. The SAM is devised in this tradition mainly as a framework for the classification and organization.of statistical data. It reflects the network of transactions among the sub-sectors of the main economic activities, namely; production, consumption, accumulation and transactions with the rest of the world. Being the. statistical reflection of the` details, of the circular flow in the economy,. the SAM ' implies mutual consistency among different sets of statistical data. The guidelines of the System of Social Accounting proposed by the united Nations Statistical-Offi.ee (latest revision: 1968) were approved by the Turkish State Instituteof statistics <SIS) in the early 1970' s, and several important pilot- projects were conducted thereafter. However, these attempts were not carried further, as a result, today researchers dealing with, applied analysis are; still faced. with -the problems of d^ata inefficiency as well as data inconsistency. This issue implies the main reason for pur attempt to construct a Social Accounting Matrix for the Turkish economy. In our case, its being a useful device for the organization and derivation of consistent data has a; priority to the various functions of the SAM. The first chapter of this study contains introductory information on the contents of the theses.,, which are outline-d above. In the second chapter, a survey oh the use of quantitative knowledge and methods in economic analysis is carried. This implies an attempt to trace the development of the quantitative approach in support to theoretical analysis in economics, starting i-n the Wth century.. Quantitative techniques were.developed through two channels?' one is the development of computable.general equilibrium, models, capturing micro linkages in the economy, with the -; Leontief analysis at its center. The second İs the development of Keynesian models comprising macro, linkages in the economy,.>.In short, one çan say that National Income. Accounting ; was founded in order, to satisfy the data need of Keynesian analysis, on the` other hand, following `the Second World War,, the need for more complex `analysis and the attempts to overcome the limitations of Keynesian approach: gave rise^ to the development of Social Accounting. Thus Social Accounting J. emerged to satisfy the data need of computable general, equilibrium type of models:, which requested detailed inform ation in complience with the relationships they.embraced.VIXi In the- third chapter the structure of the SAM is worked out, first by setting its theoretical fundamentals and secondly by exposing its analytical framework. There are two main models underlying the SAM framework; Keynesian and Leontief. The distribution o-f national income in terms of its final demand components lies at the center of the Keynesian model. Leontief s model, on the other hand, ' concentrates on the distribution of total demand in t.erms of -production activities. This implies that Keynesian final demand elements are disaggregated into production sectors and also intermediate transactions among production sectors are taken into account with the break of the intermediate demand. If this approach is applied to the case of income components of national income also, it is evident that we will reach to a similar conclusion, this time concerning the sectoral breakdown of income elements. This way of analysis, that is, taking into account the income and expenditure sides of the economic phenomena simultaneously is the core qf Social Accounting. This statement provides the hints to see the accounting basis of this system. The social basis is set with the consideration of national income components as the outcomes of individual economic' behaviours. This implies that economic sectors are taken into account in terms of their subgroups. The complex network of the double side transactions summarized above can best be exposed with the organization of these relationships in a matrix framework. Thus,. SAM can be defined as the set of transactions in the economy which are arranged with the principles of double-entry bookkeeping. In this respect, the SAM is a collection of individual income- expenditure accounts, reflecting the income-expenditure accounts of the nation in detail.IX In the fourth chapter, functions of the SAM are discussed. There are three main areas of usage. In the fi'jrst place, the SAM is a tabular device for the classification and organization of statistical data in a consistent way. This is of major importance m the case of applied studies faced with the problem of missing and/or inefficient data. Secondly, structural analysis of the economy on quantitative grounds is made possible by the SAM. The analysis will get complex in parallel course with the disaggregation of the SAM accounts. It should be noted that the circular flow nature of the economic transactions will, be inherent in any kind of analysis with the SAM-, In the third place, the SAM itself can be used as a planning model belonging to the class of identity-based models. In the fifth chapter, the SAM constructed for Turkey for the year 1973 (SAM-Turkey 1973) is introduced in connection with the theoretical and statistical fundamentals leading to its construction. In the first part of this chapter, takes place a brief survey on the adoptation of the System of National Income accounting and afterwards of the United Nation's proposals for the Social Accounting framework in Turkey. It is annoying to note that the coherence among` the national income aggregates and the values of the input-output table could be brought in for the first time in 1973, and no other input-output table has been published since then. In the second part of this chapter, the statistical data used during the construction of the SAM-Turkey 1973 is discussed. The main reason for the choice of 1973 is already stated above. The data employed is mostly of offical origin,`x ???- çpll^çtea^ from the p-ublications of the SIS and Turkish.State Blanning. Organisation. (SPO). The Input-Output table for the 1973 forms the skeleton of the Turkish ŞAM Due to space limitation, the set of raw data and; the consistency calcul ations could. not bre subiiiitted along with this : tejct. They appear in a separate teport, unpublished for the time being. In the last part j the SAM-Turkey 1973 is introduced in terms of its stages of coBgtructioh. -;., '. ? ?.` - The first and main point of consideration has been to provide the : consistency among the components. of national income. Thus, at the first stage, a macro SAM with four accounts is constructed..`..- - ~ At the second stage, the macro SAM is reorganized to cover the disaggregations in the factors of production and institutions. Table S.l gives the general structure of the SAM-Turkey 1973.,XI In the SAM-Turkey 1973, there are two factors of production: labor and non-labor. There are two types of Institutions; households and government. Households are separated into three groups: agricultural, non-agricultural wage and non-agricultural non-wage households. The last group is assumed to receive capital income; thus a separate account for firms does not take place. The SAM attained at this stage has 9 accounts except totals..'At the last stage, the final SAM is reached with the disaggregation of the production account into its. sectors. The 64 sectors of the Input-Output table for 1973 are aggregated into 25 sectors, in the SAM. Thus the final SAM- Turkey 1973 has 33 accounts. In the sixth chapter, the five new data sets derived during the construction of the SAM are introduced. One is the ? domestic input-output table of 25x25, for 1973. For each sector,the import content of intermediary input consumption is deduced < by making use of the Import Flow Matrix f.or 1973 of the SIS ^ along with the Input-Output table. y i / i ı The second data set consists of the consumption ' expenditures of the four institutions in terms of domestic j production sectors. This implies the domestic composition of j demand. In this context, an evaluation of the existing surveys j of household income and consumption carried by the SIS is also made. The third data set belongs to ' the domestic composition of investment expenditures in terms of 25 origin sectors. Private and public investment are taken together in the SAM- Turkey 1973. The derivation of the last two data sets required consistency calculations, in short; SPO figures had to' be revised in the. light of the ratios given by the Import FlowMatrix of the SIS to provide coherence withthe Input-Output Table. The. composition of the savings o>f the institutions is embodied in the fourth data set. This implies the derivation, of some of the incoming values for the capital account. Since capital consumption has already been taken into consideration with the production activities account, the savings provided by the households and government should be taken as. the 'net' contributions to capital accumulation. The final set of- data consists of the incomes of the instutions and their components which are derived in the light of their expenditures along with the basic accounting identities in the SAM. At this point, one can say that up to here the contribution of the SAM-Turkey 1973 with regards to statistical data is emphasized. Its analytical contribution is exposed in - the seventh chapter. In the first part, 'a brief outlook of the Turkish economy in the year 1973 is set down. In the second part, the structure of the Turkish- economy is studied making use of the SAM-Turkey 1973. Stress has been upon those transactions which reflect the basic linkages such as income distribution, rather than interindustry relationships which occupy more than half space of the SAM. In this context the dual nature of the transactions is taken into account so that the second function of the SAM stated above could be verified with the SAM-Turkey 1973. In the eighth and last chapter, the- main findings of the work are outlined. Besides, the reasons for not having carried model solutions with the SAM are stated.X1X1 - A comparative analysis could not be carried with the SAM-Turkey 1973, because neither similar SAMs nor available data exist for such comparison. As a concluding remark, one can say that having not settled the SSA since 1950s in literal terms, the SIS and SPO have the sole responsibility for the present unsatisfying position of the Turkish statistics. In consequence, the scope of applied studies is generally subject to limitation created by available data.