İspanya ve Portekiz`in AT üyeliğinin Türkiye`nin ihracatına etkileri

Abstract

ÜZET İktisadi bütünleşmenin (entegrasyonun) ilk ortaya çıkışı, ulu sal devletlerin kuruluşuna kadar dayandırılabilmekle birlikte, yirminci yüzyıldaki şekliyle iktisadi birlikler ilk olarak 1950` li yıllarda görülmüştür. İktisadi bütünleşmelerin ortaya çıkışıyla birlikte bunların uluslararası iktisattaki yeri, üye cilan ve olma yan ülkelerin ekonomik yapılarına etkileri yoğun olarak tartışılmaya başlanmıştır. İktisadi bütünleşmelerin en yaygın türü vs ilk aşaması olan gümrük birliklerinin özellikle üye olmayan ülkeler üzerindeki etkilerini araştıran çalışmalar bir `gümrük birlikleri veya iktisadi bütünleşme` kuramını oluşturmuşlardır. Bu kuram gümrük birliklerinin etkilerini dünya refahı açısından değerlendirmekte ve temel iki etkinin `ticaret yaratıcı` ve `ticareti saptırıcı` etkiler olduğunu açıklamaktadır. Buna göre bir gümrük birliği net olarak ticaret yaratıyorsa dünya refahını artırıcı, net olarak, ticareti saptırıyorsa refahı azaltıcı etki yapmış olmaktadır. 195D' 11 yıllarda kurulan bu birliklerden bugün en güçlü kurum sal yapıya sahip olanı Avrupa Topluluğu' dur. Bu tezde Avrupa Topluluğu'nun bünyesine son kattığı İspanya ve Portekiz'in entegrasyonunun, Topluluğa bu iki ülkeyle benzer mallar satan Türkiye üze rinde yapacağı etkinin net olarak ticaret yaratıcı mı ticareti saptırıcı mı alacağı konusu araştırılmaktadır. Teorik tartışmalara ayrılan ikinci ve üçüncü bölümden sonra dördüncü bölümde AT tanıtılmış ve Türkiye ile ilişkileri değerlendirilmiştir. Beşinci bölüm de ise uygulama kısmına gerekli zemini hazırlamak üzere Topluluğa ve karşılaştırılan ülkelere ait çeşitli istatistikler verilmiştir. Altıncı bölümde, bu ülkelerin Topluluğa yaptıkları ihracatın Türkiye üzerinde nasıl bir etki yaptığını anlamak üzere, ihracat benzerlik indeksleri uygulanmıştır. Bu bölümde öncelikle anılan yöntem açıklanmış, daha sonra bu indeksin tarım ürünleri, sanayi ürünleri ve tüm ürünler bazında ne boyutta olduğu hesaplanmıştır. İki ülkenin ihracat.benzerliği ne kadar yüksekse, birinin tam üyelik sonucu sağlayacağı avantajların diğeri üzerinde ticareti saptırıcı etki yapma olasılığı o kadar fazladır. Böylelikle, hesaplanan indeksler bu tür bir yorumda kullanılmıştır. Yedinci bölümde ise, son ondört yıllık verilere göre Türkiye'nin Topluluğa yaptığı ihracatı etkileyen faktörler ortaya konmuş tur. Bu faktörlerden İspanya ve Portekiz'in katılmasının etkisini de gösteren bir denklem tahmin edilmiştir. Nihayet sonuç ve öneriler bölümünde, çalışmanın ulaştığı sonuçlar doğrultusunda, Türkiye'nin Avrupa Topluluğu'na yaptığı ihracatta net bir ticareti saptırıcı etki görülmemesi için yapılma sı gerekenler belirlenmiştir. - VI

SUMMARY THE IMPACT OF THE ENLARGEMENT OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY TO SPAIN AND PORTUGAL, ON THE TURKISH EXPORTS TO THE COMMUNITY Economic integration is a concept which can be situated even at the end of feudal era. There are some authors advancing the goal of European unification is as old as the nation state, uihich appeared with the decline of feudal fornte of social organization, and the establishment of central authority at the national level. But the integration concept of the twentieth century appeared after the ttua world wars. The wars made Europe disintegrated and the fear of living another horror like them, obliged Europeans to think of a United Europe. These thoughts resulted in the foundation of European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) in 19.51. These two materials being the inputs of the war industry, the unification of Europe seemed to lie in the control of these sectors. The foundation of EuropeanriEconomic Community in 1957, following the ECSC, in order to enlarge this unification to all the economies of the member states. European Economic Community can be considered successful because it was enlarged three times since its foundation. Great Britain, Ireland and Denmark in 1974, Greece in 1981 and finally Spain and Portugal in 1986 acceded to the European Economic Community which took the name of Economic Community meanwhile, in order also to include the concept of political integration. A theory of economic integration was developed to follow this historical evolution. The most frequent type of economic integration being the customs unions, the theory is called also the theory of customs unions. A study on the effects of a particular customs union on a country can hardly be completed without having a look on this theory which was discussed especially after 1950' s. Thie theory aimed to evaluate mainly the trade creation and trade diversion effects of a customs union since it assumes that a net trade creation effect will increase the world welfare while a net trade diversion will decrease it. s - VII -After an introduction in chapter one, chapter two deals with these theoretical discussions beginning from the 1950' s up to the present. The objective of the thesis being to evaluate `the impact of the enlargement of the European Community to include Spain and Portugal, on the Turkish exports to the Community`, only the trade creating and trade diverting effects are considered among the static ones. The dynamic effects like the economies of scale, external economies, trade balance etc were neglected because the aim of the thesis is to see whether the integration of Spain and Portugal would increase or decrease the Turkish exports to the Community. In this chapter, different types of integration are defined and examples are given.to all of them. An essay of definition is made for the economic integration. In chapter two the problem of the protectionism in the Community is also discussed, as it affects the third countries. European Community is frequently criticised to protect its internal market by non- tariff.barriers and quotas. This protectionism results in the decrease of the exports of the third countries to the Community and consequently, decrease the total world welfare, because inefficient Community production replaces the efficient ones of the third countries, protected by the non-tariff barriers. The effects of the protectionism are discussed in this chapter in relation with the developing countries. In chapter three, some economic integrations existing in the world are examined, beginning with the European Community. There are several studies dealing with the effects of the European integration on the third countries. The chapter begins with a review of these studies and continues with the comparison of the different economic integrations existing in the world. The emphasis is put on the compariâon of the two main integrations of different economic systems which are European Community and COMECON or CMEA (Council of Mutual Economic Assistance). These two economic integrations are compared with regard to the principles of the capitalist and socialist systems. The chapter finally treats the integrations between develo ping countries and compares them with the integration of developed countries, between themselves. - VIII -In chapter four, Entitled `European Community and Turkey` the Community is studied from its foundation to its present structure, including its evolution during the thirty years. After that the common policies of the Community are explained, being the most important instruments of its functioning. It is well known that a huge structure with 320 million habitants from different countries, different languages and different levels of development needs to be coordinated with common policies. The common social policy, the common commer cial policy, the common transport policy, the common agricultural policy, the European Monetary System, the common industrial policy and the consumer and environment protection policies are some important common policies of the community which are treated in this chapter. But the main emphasis is put on the common agricultural policy wich is also important far Turkey. Because the protection system established by this policy hardened the conditions Df exporting agricultural products to the Community even if the prices are lower than those of, the Community. Duties levied on the customs, are protecting community products from the competition of the third countries cheaper products. That is why this policy affects also Turkish exports especially after the entry of Greece, Spain and Portugal. The instruments and the functioning of this policy are examined to make the evaluation of Turkey's situation easier. The chapter continues with the study of the relations betwen European Community and different groups of countries in order to make the comparison with the Turkish-European Community relations possible. The evolution of the relations between Turkey and the European Community is reviewed studying the association agreement, the additional protocol and the financial protocols. The chapter ends with the evaluation of the commercial relations trend between the two parties. Because it is impurtant to know the trend of the exports and imports of Turkey in the last decade for trying to measure the effects of the latest enlargement of the Community. Chapter five considers the economic situations of the three new members of the Community as well as the economic situation of Turkey. Statistical tables are observed for this purpose. First of all, population statistics are given in order to compare the importance represented by the four IX -countries for the Community. Turkey and Spain haying practically the same importance of population and area, are countries which would change the structure of the Community in case of entry. Spain joined it in 19B6 with Portugal and the problems of adaptation still exist. Bo Turkey! s application has to wait longtime before it gets a positive response. After the comparison of the general economic situation, the foreign trades of these countries are also compared. Exporting practically the same products, their foreign trades can influence the others. The part of imports financed by the exports being also a very important indicator of the economic level of a country, it is considered for; the countries compared. In chapter six the export similarities of the four countries are calculated. As it was stated earlier, Spain, Portugal, Greece and Turkey are exporting similar products to the European Community. This makes them compete to increase their exports, while the membership of the three is disadvantaging Turkey. The export similarity indexes, by showing the degree of similarity between two countries, aims, at determining their level of competition. So, if the indexe is near 100, the similarity makes the two countries dangerously competing. If it is near 0, the advantages procured to one of them by the membership, tends not to decrease the exports of the other. In this chapter the indexes are calculated between Turkey- Spain, Turkey-Portugal and Turkey-Greece. The fact that Greece is taken into consideration in this thesis results from the desire to make a comparison possible with the effects of her membership which is earlier than those of Spain and Portugal and so, easier to see on the figures. The similarity indexes are calculated separately for agricul tural products, industrial products and all the products. The reason is to see the similarity of the countries concerned, separately in different products. Thus Spain and Turkey is greatly similar in agricultural products while they are not in industrial ones. In the same chapter the foreign trades of these countries with the European Community are also given statistically. It makes pos sible to compare their trends in the recent years and especially after the entry of Greece, Spain and Portugal. The figures are not satisfactory tu say that the two enlargement caused any harm on Turkey's exports. - X -Su the export similarity indexes are used ta say that Turkey has to prepare herself to the increasing competition of Greece in all products and of Gpain in the agricultural ones. The Common Agricultural policy gives great advantage to these two countries after their accession and Turkey has to find new ways to increase. hsr exports. These ways are also discussed in the chapter and some propositions are offered. In the seventh and last chapter, an ecDnpmetric model is pro posed to capture thş effects of Spain's and Portugal's entry on the Turkish exports. There are several studies which tend to see the factors affecting Turkey's relations witni'the European Community. In this chapter these studies based an econometric models are sum marized, in order to determine a model and variables which can be used for the purpose of the thesis. After a review of earlier studies and articles, a new model of one equation is suggested to measure the effect of the latest enlargement on Turkey. First the share of Turkey's exports to the European Community in the Turkey's, Spain's and Portugal's total exports to the same market is tried to be explained by different variables like the imports of European Community or its gross national product or the cost of living standard indexe or the exchange rate of. the dollar in Turkey. As thesu independent variables do not explain the dependent variable well, another one is tried. This new dependent variable is the Turkish exports to the European market. The equation which pas »sua nil the testB in chosen to be the best one. This equation Bhows that the entry of Spain and Portugal caused a decrease of 670 million EClls of Turkish exports, per year, other variables being unchanged. This does not maan that Turkey's exports decreased in absolute terns but that there is a slowdawn of increase caused by the latest enlargement. In other words, if this enlargement has not taken place, Turkey's exports would have been 670 million ECHs more, every year after 19Q6, tha year of the untry of Spain and Portugal. Finally in the `conclusion and suggestions`, the thesis was summarized to soetout a conclusion and make somu suggestions sabout thu waya of minimizing the tradu diversion uffect of the latest enlargement of European Community on Turkey. Suggestions on standardization and effective marketing ac tlvities are made to decrease the chance of competition with the new members of European Community. - XI -