Yatırım projelerinde sosyal fayda ve maliyet analizi

Abstract

ÖZET Kamu yatırımlarının, sosyal, açıdan değerlendirilmesini konu alan bu tez 6 bölümden oluşmaktadır. Giriş bölümü özel ve kamu kesimlerindeki farklılığı ve her iki sektörde uygulanması gereken politika ve tekniklerin önemini vurgulamaktadır. İkinci bölüm sermaye yatırımlarının değerlendirilmesini veya Fayda-Maliyet Analizinin gelişimini tarihsel ve kavramsal bir çerçeve içinde incelemektedir* Üçüncü bölümde; 3?ayda- Maliyet Analizinin işlemsel yapısı üzerinde durulmakta ve bu yapı içerisinde kullanılacak fiyat sistemi gözden geçirilmekte ve genel olarak etkinlik sorunları irdelenmektedir. Dördüncü bölüm yine uygulamaya dönük sosyal iskonto oranı, risk, yatırım kriterleri ve bölüşümsel ağırlıklar gibi kavramları incelemekte ve çeşitli iktisatçılarca belirtilen görüşlerin teorik bir değerlendirmesini vermektedir. Beşinci bölümde Payda Maliyet Analizinde kullanılan temel yöntemler. incelenmekte ve birbirleri ile olan iliş kileri gösterilmektedir. Son bölüm ise. ülkemizde yap-işlet-devret modeli çerçevesinde yapılmakta olan bir yabancı sermaye yatırımının sosyal açıdan değerlendirilmesini ve sayısal sonuçlarını İrdelemektedir. - Vİ -

SUMMARY THE SOCIAL COST-BMEFIT ANALYSIS OF IWES'DMEIT PROJECTS As known, the eost^-benefit analysis techniques are the techniques used for evaluating the social costs and benefits of capital projects. Today' s analytical and the oretical framework of social cost-benefit analysis is the result of many contributions by economists since the 1930s and it has been used extensively by practiti oners, many international organizations and professional ?economists all over the world, The second chapter of this thesis stresses the historical development and conceptual framework of social cost-benefit analysis. Prom the public's point of view, the importance, necessity and advantages of using such techniques are discussed and the meaning and place of social cost-benefit analysis in welfare econo mics are explained, Additionaly, the relationship between the SCBA and national planning and the relati onship between the national parameters and projects are examined in this chapter. The third chapter examines the operational side of SCBA, When a public project is evaluated there are four main points which should be taken into account:; prices and measurement problem, social time preference and the problem -of. opportunity cost of capital., risk and distri bution problem. The first of these is related to shadow prices. As known, imperfect competition, taxes underemploy ment, increasing returns and other factors have been diverting the' price structure from the competitive efficiency and creating a non-efficient price system. In order to avoid such a situation shadow prices are used as efficiency prices in SCBA. The shadow prices have been reflecting the substitution ratios between two factors or two outputs in terms of their opportunity costs. - vxi ^Specifically, regarding the shadow price Of foreign exchange there are some methodologies and approaches.. The elasticities approach depends upon the foreign trade elasticities, tariff rates and the shares of the. common dities in the total volume öf foreign trade. Another approach takes the opportunity cost of foreign exchange into account and includes domestic resource costs, effective tariff rates and Little- Mirrlees `world prices` methodologies. The last group of approaches concern the equilib rium rate of exchange rate and try- to deduce equilibri um exchange rates from specific assumptions. The shadow pricing applies to labor as well. As it -is well-known in perfect competition the shadow price of labor is equal to market price of labor and this is also' equal to marginal productivity of labor. But, as already mentioned above, where the perfect competition conditions fail, the market price of labor cannot reflect the social opportunity cost of labor. In this case the monetary wages cause the understatement or overstatement of the social costs of labor used in project. The fourth chapter concerns some concepts which have functional importance in SGBA. The first is social time preference ratio or social discount rate. Regarding the social discount rate there are different approaches in literature. The. utilitarian approach depends upon the idea that the marginal utility of present consumption is more than the future consumption. This approach necessitates the reduction of the value of` future consumption by discounting with certain factor. Another is the pure time preference approach which gives more importance to today than tomorrow due to reasons such as death, uncertainty etc... The ideas of social discount rate get more.compli cated when the preferences of future generations are introduced. In this case, the consumption and investment - viii -preferences of individuals will be effected according to information about their contemporaries decisions. In this case some economists stress the importance of government intervention in order to protect the interests of future generations. Finally > the marginal productivity of capital is thought ana used as the social discount rate. The underlying reason for this idea is the willingness to make the public project's returns comparable with other capital projects' returns. But some economists also mention that in SCBA there is not only one price like social discount rate needed, but two prices. The first price is the marginal social time preference ratio which evaluates the value of future consumption relatively f the second price is the shadow ' price of investment which evaluates the consumption given up due to the investment project handled. Another point in SCBA is the problem of risk. The statistical theory is concerned in' evaluating the risky outputs and of course has got the needed instru ments. But. from the public investments' point of view the cost of risk-bearing is a discussable argument in SCBA. Distribution is another problem in SCBA. The project appraisal becomes a method which evaluates only the efficiency if it is assumed that' it is po ssible to arrive at optimum income distribution by financial and monetary measures. But if the authori ties are lacking or cannot use such instrument's, the equality objective should be formulated in project evaluation in a certain manner. The decision criterion is an outstanding point as well. As it is well known the literature includes many techniques like net present value, internal rate of return, normalization techniques etc... The right decision criterion is a changing subject of const raints and objective function to be maximized or mini mized. Generally the two well known criteria have been giving the same ranking of projects when they - IX -are used with the normalized data» The fifth chapter of this thesis covers the met hodologies used in SGBA and explains comparatively. There are three basic methods in this area. The UNIDO method evaluates the public projects from the national economic profitability point of view and takes the consumption benefits as `numeraire`. The costs and benefits of the projects are calculated on shadow pricing base and expressed in terms of consumption and reduced to present value by using the social discount rate. The investment funds mobilized due to a project are also taken into account by using the shadow price of investment and the' opportunity costs of these funds are calculated in terms of consumption aş well. Littie-Mirrlees and Squire-Vander Tak use world prices in their methodologies to evaluate the costs and benefits of projects. In their methods, the uncommitted public income in terms of. foreign exchange is accepted as `numeraire`. The aceuxaiing prices as they are called in their analysis, are deduced from the market prices using conversion fac tors and discounting the social costs and benefits with accounting rate of interest uncommitted public income is expressed in terms of foreign exchange. The broad distinction between the two methods lies in their theoretical strueture. The first difference is about the selection of numeraire. The two methods use border prices and internal prices for commodities. The IftTIDO method revalues the border prices in terms of domestic consumption values by using a shadow exchange rate. The other method (LM-LSfT) goes from domestic prices to border prices by using conversion factor. Th)is, when the results of both works are converted and explained in terms of the other they both co imcide. According to... ULttle and mirrlees substantied ' differences could' arise for two reasons : a) first; different recommendations are given as to when border or internal prices should be used. b) different procedures are followed in order to convert the domestic prices or border prices. The second difference between the two methods lies in the treatment of laxes. The Little Mirrlees work excludes the taxes put on final consumer goods. - xThe case study in the sixth chapter examins the private and social costs and benefits of a foreign invest ment realised on build-op.erate-transfer base. For several discount rates, the previous assumptions made are modified and the sensitivities of net present, values and C/B ratios are determined. As seen in the tables social profitability of the projector the public's profit is approximately two times more than the profit of private investors.' This is mainly coused by the casino taxes put on casino's gross revenue^., and withholding taxes on local and expatriate salaries In the concluding chapter the contributions of socially appraised investment projects to economy and the results of such evaluation procedures are discussed. It is also stressed that project evaluation as policy instrument, should be used in qn economy in order to arrive at trade efficiency in terms of world prices. - xi -