Genellenmiş uyarlayıcı arındırma yöntemi ve Eskişehir ili tüpgaz tüketimine ilişkin bir uygulama denemesi

Abstract

VI ABSTRACT The use of calor gas has been common day by day principally within families and commercial and industrial institution. This widespread use and the necessity of providing place, time and amount benefit to calor gas demand brings up the vitality of planning. Estimation related to calor gas consumption for planning and making decisions is an inevitable means. Estimation related to calor gas consumption is important primarily from the national point of view for determination of calor gas demond and then from the administrations1 point of view for the determination of their marketing portion and keeping this portion. In this study it was tried to estimated that calor gas demond in future of Eskişehir by the use of the data related to current calor gas demand of the city. Estimation results will help to provide the place, time and amount benefit for the demand in the city. The decrease depending on the use of solid oil or solar energy during winter and summer shows that the demand varees according to time so it is obvious the necessity of using time series estimation methods related to the topic. In the first part of our study that has been formed in two parts, time series and analysis have been reviewed in detail and the reason has been tried to put forward why Generalized Adaptive filtering was chosen as an appropriate method. However, the theoretical structure ofvii the model of GUA method which was chosen as appropriate method and the determination stages have been studied in detail. In the last part GUA has been applied to the monthly and quarterly calor gas consumption of Eskişehir. The study has been completed with the part including the conclusion and concerning operations and computer programs have been given in eddings.