Kredi taleplerinin değerlendirilmesinde mali analiz

Abstract

ÖZET Kredi yönetimi, bankaların ve kredi kurumlarının faaliyet ve/veya yatırımlarını yabancı kaynakla finanse etmek isteyen ticaret, sanayi ve hizmet işletmelerine sağlanan ve bankalar ile kredi kurumlarının aktifine alacak olarak yansıyan kredinin her aşamasındaki işlemlerin yürütülmesidir. Bankalar ve kredi kurumlan topladıktan mevduatları ve elde ettikleri fon kaynaklarını belirledikleri faiz oranlan üzerinden kullanmaya hazır olan işletmelere kredi olarak verir. Günümüzde yabancı kaynaklarla finansman eğilimi artmakta olduğundan, bankalarda ve kredi kurumlarında Kredi Yönetimi giderek önem kazanmaya ve gelişmeye başlamıştır. Kredi yönetimi, geniş anlamıyla, iyi organize edilmiş bir kredi analizinden,bu kredi analiziyle elde edilen verilerin çerçevesinde kredi talebinin değerlendirilmesinden, tahsis edilen kredilerin devam eden kredi analiziyle izlenmesinden, problemli hale gelebilecek ve gelmiş olan kredilerin tespitinden, kredi fiyatının ve teminatlarının belirlenmesinden ve kredi alacaklarının tahsilinden oluşur. Kredi analizi ve kredi talebinin ayrıntılı değerlendirilmesi ile kredinin riski tespit edilmeye çalışılır. Bir kredi talebi değerlendirilirken kullanılan en önemli veriler ise kredilendirilecek işletme ile ilgili verilerdir. Burada en çok üzerinde durulan işletmenin mali durumudur. Kredi talep eden işletmenin mali durumunu tespit etmenin gerekliliği de banka ve kredi kurumlarında mali analiz yapma ve mali analiz bölümü oluşturma zorunluluğunu getirmiştir. Mali analiz yapılırken, kredi talep eden firmanın mali durumunu ve kredinin riskini etkileyecek her türlü faktörün incelenmesi gerekmektedir. Mali analizin ilk adımı firmanın mali tablolarının analizidir. Firmanın mali durumunun krediyi geri ödeyebilecek düzeyde olduğuna karar verildikten sonra, firmanın mali durumunu sarsacak bir sektörel veya ekonomik faktörün oluşma riskini tespit için de işletmenin içinde bulunduğu sektör ile ülkenin ekonomik durumunun analizini de yapmak gerekir. Teoride işletmenin mali analizi yapılırken mali durumunu yansıtacak bir çok tablodan yararlanılabilir. Ancak pratikte bu kadar geniş kapsamlı bir incelemenin analiz maliyetlerini arttırması ve analiz süresini uzatması nedeniyle banka ve kredi kurumlarının rekabetçi bir ortamda bulunan plasman kaygısı içinde olduğu düşünülürse, analizin daha kısa sürede sonuçlandırılması gerekir. Bu nedenle, pratikte sadece bilanço, gelir tablosu, kar dağıtım tablosu, ithalat ve ihracat tutarları, üretim ve satış miktarları ile ilgili raporlar elde edilerek analizin yapılması yeterli kabul edilmektedir. Bu araştırmanın başlığı `Kredi Taleplerinin Değerlendirilmesinde Mali Analiz` dir. Geniş olarak kredi taleplerinin değerlendirme faktörleri, değerlendirmede mali analizin nasıl ve hangi durumlar için yapıldığı ve önemi, mali tabloların içerikleri ve şekilleri, mali tablolar ve firma içi ve dışı diğer verilerin düzenlenmesi, mali durum raporunun oluşturulması ve yorumu yer almaktadır.

SUMMARY Credit analysis is the most important function in effective credit management. While deciding to provide funds to companies, banks should apply credit analysis. Number of risks in lending operations which may lead to the nonpayment of obligations when they come due exist. Losses sometimes result from ` Acts of God ` such as storms, droughts, fires, earthquakes, and floods. If the losses don't result from ` Acts of God `, credit managers default and wrong decision maybe the reasons. Changes in consumer demand or in technology may alter drastically the fortunes of a business firm and may place a profitable borrower in a loss position. A prolonged strike, competitive price cutting or loss of key management personnel can seriously impair a borrower's ability to meet loan paymets. The swings of the business cycle affect the profits of many who borrow from bank and influence the optimism and pessimism of business people as well as consumers. Some other risks also arise from personal factors which may be difficult to explain. In determining whether or not to grant a loan a banker must attempt to measure the risk of nonpayment. This risk is estimated through a process referred as credit analysis. Banks in order to maximize their profits must seek the highest returns possible on loans and securities, at the same time try to minimize risk and make adequate provisions for liquidity by holding liquid assets. First, banks try to find borrowers who can pay high interest charges and are unlikely to default on their loans. Banks seek out loan business by advertising their borrowing rates and by directly approaching corporations to solicit loans. It is up to the bank's loan officer to decide whether or not potential borrowers carry good credit risks. In general, banks are very conservative in their loan policies, and their default rate is usually less than 1 %. It is, however, important that banks not be so conservative that they miss out on attractive lending opportunities that offer high interest returns. Second, banks try to purchase securities with good returns and low risk. Third, in managing their asset portfolio banks must attempt to minimize risks through diversification. They accomplish this by investing in many different types of assets ( short and long-term, Treasury and municipal bonds) and approving many types of loans for a number of customers. Banks which have not sufficiently sought the benefits of diversification often come to regret it later. For example, banks over specialized in making loans to energy XIcompanies, real estate developers, or farmers sufferred huge losses in the 1980s with the slump in energy, property and farm prices in the U.S.. Indeed, many of these banks went broke because they had ` put too many rotten eggs in the one basket`. Finally, banks must manage the liquidity of its assets so that they can satisfy its reserve requirements without bearing huge costs. This means that it will hold liquid securities even if they earn a somewhat lower return than other assets. Banks must decide, for example, how much excess reserves must be held to avoid costs from a deposit outflow. In addition, Banks want to hold government securities as secondary reserves so the cost of a deposit outflow will not be terribly high. The principal purpose of credit analysis is to determine the ability and willingness of a borrower to repay the requested loan İn accordance with the terms of the loan agreement. A bank must determine the degree of risk it is willing to assume in each case, and the amount of credit that can be prudently extended in view of the risks involved. Moreover, if a loan is to be made, it is necessary to determine the conditions and terms under which it will be granted. Some of the factors that affect the ability of a borrower to repay loan are very difficult to evaluate, however, they must be dealt with as realistically as possible in preparing financial projections. This involves looking into the past records of the borrower as well as engaging economic forecasting. Thus, the bank lending officer attempts to determine the possible hazards in the future on the other hand, whether the loan will be repaid in the ordinary course of business. Loans should not be based entirely on a borrower's history and reputation. They may be contracted today but they are paid in the future. The work of credit analysis is basically the same for all banks. However, certain functions may be emphasized more to a greater extent in some banks than others. In general, credit analysis include the collection of information that will have a bearing on credit evaluation, the preparation and analysis of the information collected and, the assembling and retention of information for future use. In some banks the credit department can make recommendations regarding a credit application, but the final decision is left to the lending officer and/or the loan committee. In addition to these important functions, the credit department serves as a training ground for future loan officers, fa small banks the loan officer typically perform their own credit analysis. Borrowers' financial statement is the most important factor in analyzing credit demand. Borrowers' financial statement is determined with financial analysis and creditor decide about credit customer's creditibility. While determining the credit-worthiness of a customer, the following questions should be answered; 1. Is the business well established? Xll2. Is it in a growth, static or declining trend? 3. Is new technology, a threat to the product line(s), services, etc.? 4. If technology is important to the continuing success of the business, is there an ongoing and effective program of Research & Development? 5. Does the customer operate in a growth-oriented area, an area of limited growth potential, or an area in economic decline? 6. Is the business well managed? Are management and support people experienced and competent? 7. Is cash flow adequate for the activity level of business? 8. Is there any strong-and long-term bank support? 9. If the business extends credit to its customers, does the credit management personnel have the experience for his or her level of responsibility? 10. If there is a heavy investment in inventory, is it justified by geographic, market, or other conditions? 11. Is receivables-aging in line with sales, sales terms, and the company's need for internally generated cash flow? 12. Is internally generated cash (receivables / collections) adequate for normal business requirements, or is an abnormal level of bank support used to supplement cash-flow needs? 13. Is there enough room in the various areas of management so that the loss of one person would not adversely impact management's strength? 14. Is there a good balance of management, financial, manufacturing, and marketing skills? 15. Is there supplier continuity, and do the suppliers generally express satisfaction with their relationship? 16. What does the banker say about the customer? If the banker has granted loans for capital equipment and operating funds, is he or she satisfied with the agreement and customer's performance? Many factors are considered in bank credit applications analyzing a loan request. They are the ingredients that determine the lending officer's faith in deptors' ability and willingness to pay the obligation in accordance with the terms of the loan agreement. The important factors in credit analysis could be summarized with six C's of credit; 1. Character; customer's past payment record, experience of other lenders with this customer, purpose of loan, customer's track record in forecasting, credit rating, presence of cosigners or guarantors of the proposed loan. 2. Capacity; identity of customer and guarantors, copies of charters, resolutions, agreement, and other documents bearing on the legal standing of the Xlllborrowing customer, description of history, legal structure, owners, nature of operations, products, and principal customer and suppliers for a business borrower. 3. Cash; past earning, dividends, and sales record, adequacy of projected cash flow, availability of liquid reserves, turnover of payables, receivable, and invontory, capital structure and leverage, expense controls, coverage ratios, recent performance of borrower's stock and P/E ratio, management quality, content of auditors' report and statement footnotes, recent accounting changes. 4. Collateral; ownership of assets, age of assets, vulnerability to obsolescence, liquidation value, degree of specialization in assets, liens, encumbrances, and restrictions, leases and mortgages issued, bank's relative position as creditor, lawsuits and tax positions, probable future financing needs. 5. Conditions; customer's position in industry and expected market share, customer's performance vis-a-vis comparable firms in industry, competitive climate for customer's product, sensitivity of customer and industry to business cycles and changes in technology, labor market contitions, Impact of inflation on customer's balance sheet and cash flow, long-run industry outlook, regulations, political and environmental factors. 6. Control; applicable banking laws and regulations regarding the character and quality of acceptable loans, adequate documentation for examiners, signed acknowledgments and correctly prepared loan documents, consistency of loan request with bank's written loan policy, inputs from noncredit personnel (sush as economists or political experts) on external factors affecting loan repayment. Over the years numerous other credit analysis factors have been specified as worth of consideration, and, with a little imagination, each of these can be labeled with a word beginning with`C`, Evaluation of the financial statement of a busines borrower typically begins with the bank's credit analysis department preparing an analysis over time of how the key figures on the borrower' financial statement have changed (usually during the last three, four, or five years). Information from balance sheets and income statements is typically suplemented by finacial ratio analysis. By careful selection of items from a borrower's balance sheets and income statements, the loan officer can shed light on such critical areas in business lending as; 1. A borrowing customer's ability to control expenses, 2. A borrower's operating efficieny in utilizing resources to generate sales and cash flow, XIV3. The marketability of the borrower's product line, 4. The borrowers financial policy and financing cost, lending and capital statement, 5. The borrower's liduidity position, indicating the availability of ready cash, 6. The borrower's track record of profitability or net income, 7. The amount of financial leverage (or debt relative to equity capital) a business borrower has taken on, 8. Whether a borrower feces significant contingent liabilities that may give rise to substantial claims in the future. Financial ratio analysis is the most important technique in evaluation credit customers financial statement. Financial ratios that summarized in Table 1 are commonly used financial ratios in financial analysis. Basically, there are four types of ratios: 1. Liquidity, 2. Activity ( or turnower), 3. Financial leverage, 4. Profitability. Each of these four aspects of a firm's financial health can be measured in more than one way by the use of ratios, and it is often useful to consider more than one measurement. In some instances, two similar ratios provide essentially the same information in different form, as İn the case of the ratios of debt to total assets and debt to net worth, both of which are measures of the propotion of the firm's total financing that has been supplied by creditors. In other instances, two ratios of a given type provide essentially different information, as in the case of the current ratio and the acid-test or quick ratio, both of which are measures of liquidity. If the firm has a significant amount of invetories, the acid- test ratio is a far more stringent test of liquidity than the current ratio since inventories are included in the numerator of the current ratio but not in the acid- test ratio. In working with financial ratios, it is important to keep in mind that proportionate increases m the numerator and denominator leave the ratio unchanged. Credit analysis and financial analysis are important in effective credit management analysing of credit application. If the banks credit department use these analysis and techniques. They have good credit customers. A good credit customers should have credit-worthiness and credit-worthiness evaluates with financial analysis. XVTable 1: Commonly Used Financial Ratios Tvpe of RatioNameNumeratorDenominator 1.LiquidityCurrent ratioCurrent assetsCurrent liabilities 2.LiquidityAcid testCurrent assets minus inventoriesCurrent liabilities 3. ActivityTurnover of total assetsNet salesTotal assets 4. ActivityTurnover of fixed assetsNet salesNet fixed assets 5. ActivityCollection periodAccounts receivableDaily credit sales 5*.ActivityTurnover of receivablesCredit salesAccounts receivable ö.ActivityInventory turnoverCost of salesInventories 7.Fin.Lever.Debt/ assets ratioTotal debtTotal assets 7*.Fin.LeverDebt/ net worth ratioTotal debtNet worth 8.Fin.Lever.Fixed chargesEarning before fixedFixed chargescoveragecharges and taxes9.ProfitabilityOperating profitEarning before interestTotal tangible assetsrate of returnand taxeslO.ProfitabilityNet profit marginNet profitNet sales 11.ProfitabilityReturn on assetsNet profitTotal assets 12.ProfitabilityReturn on commonNet profit minusCommon stock equityequityprefered dividendsNote: Ratios 5*and 7* are alternative to 5 and 7.XVI