Türkiye`deki para politikasının eleştirisi (1963-1981)

Abstract

ÖZET Bu çalışmanın amacı» 1963-1981 yılları arasında Türkiye'de uygulanan para politikasını incelemek ve Türkiye'nin bugün içinde bulunduğu ekonomik sıkıntılara uygulanan para politikasının katkı larını araştırmaktır. Giriş bölümünde para politikasının ekonomi >. ` -'.V.sı için deki yeri ve amacı belirtildikten sonra; para politikasını gerçek leştiren kurumsal yapının özellikleri, çalışmada yapılan gene) ka buller ve tezin diğer bölümlerini oluşturan kcrıulaı tef.'';.jştır. İkinci bölümde, Türkiye'deki para arşının gelişim' V,t..'<. ? Bankası ve ticaret bankalarının pasifleri yönünden incelenmiş, pa rasal taban» parasal çarpan ve paranın gelir hızında meydana gelen değişmeler ve nedenleri araştırılmıştır. Üçüncü bölümde, bankaların pasiflerini oluşturan mevduatların gelişimi incelenmiş ve mevduatla faiz oranları arasındaki ilişkiyle» kredi ve mevduat faiz oranları arasındaki farkın nedenleri araştırıl mıştır. Ayrıca bankaların yasal olarak mevduat miktarını etkileme olanaklarının olmadığı gösterilmiştir. Dördüncü bölümde, para arzının gelişimi aktif yönünden yani arz yönünden incelenerek, para arz md ak i artışın ana kaynağının Mer kez Bankasının kamu kesimine açtığı kredilerin olduğu gösterilmiştir. Kamu kesimine açılan kredilerin, selektif kredi politikasının > kredi faiz oranlarıyla mevduat faiz oranları arasındaki farkın ve faiz oranları düzeyinin ekonomiyi nasıl etkilediği gösterilmiştir.Beşinci bölümde, parasal büyüklükleri etkilemede kullanılabi lecek para politikası araçları incelenmiş ve Türkiye'de bu araçların bir bütün olarak kullanılamadığı ve bu nedenle parasal büyüklükleri bu araçlarla etkileme olanağının çok az olduğu gösterilmiştir. Altıncı bölümde, parasal büyüklüklerin ekonomi politikası üzerin deki etkileri, Türkiye'de yapılan başlıca araştırmalar aracılığıyla incelenmiş ve varılan sonuçlar özetlenmiştir. Yedinci bölümde, beş yıllık kalkınma planlarmdaki para politi kaları incelenerek, sanayileşme politikası olarak uygulanan ithal ikamesi politikası sonucu kurulan yüksek maliyetli sektörlerin göreli fiyat yapısını nasıl bozduğu ye bu sektörlerin ekonomide tu tun ab i İme s i için neden para arzının arttırılması gerektiği ayrıntılarıyla incelen miş ve Türkiye'nin genel para politikası üzerinde etkin olabilecek Özgün değerlendirmeler yapılmıştır. Sonuçlar bölümünde yapılan çalışmalar özetlenerek; Türkiye'nin 1963-1981 yılları arasındaki para politikası özgün bir açıdan değer lendirilmiştir..

SUMMARY CRITICISM OF MONETARY POLICY IN TURKEY:1963-1981 The purpose of this dissertation is to analyze the implemented monetary policy in Turkey during the period between the years 1963-1981 The role of monetary policy depends on the structure of money markets» As in the other less developed countries financial market in Turkey has different characteristics compared to developed countries. Exchange rates are determined by monetary authorities and overvalued. Markets for non-monetary government debt are largely non-exisfcent. As a consequence of this fact, government deficits automatically feed into the money supply. Also non-existent are significant markets for equities and bonds and interest, rates of d bO'-its 'e fixed by the monetary authorities under the equilibrium v-;. In.-` intermediation between private wealtbholders and the busii.-'Si. sector takes place either via the banking system or the curb mark.. Low level of interest rates of deposits in the banking system 5-iri- - individual savers preferring to realize their own investment,. ? :^uivt2on or purchasing gold etc. in order to hold on or to increase i'u-i: vcoith. As a consequence the scale of the firms are smaller til-.;, hi- firms in developed countries. The main objective is to increase real money supply or to increase real money demand but the banking system do not have control over deposit rates. Therefore the banks have opened too many branches to increase their market share from the total deposits. Opening new branches has increased their deposits' costs. Nominal amounts of deposits have increased during the period, out in the years 1974, 1978, 1979 and i960, the real amount of saving deposits declinedcompared to the preceding years. When this situation is considered with real interest rates of deposits, except the year 1974, it is clear that the amount of deposits depends on the real rate of interest rates. On the other hand especially from the mid of the 1970' s up to now the rate of inflation has been toe high. High inflation rates effect the terns structure of the economic activities since denominator of the net present value formulation is becoming higher. From the point of view of depositors this means that the higher the term structure, the net present value of the interest revenue will be lower. When the sources of increments of money supply are analysed by the asset side of consolidated balance sheet of banking system, it is clear that the main source of increments is the credits of Merkez Bankası (Central Bank of Turkey). Generally these credits won't come back to Merkez Bankası. Other than State Economic Enterprises (SEE) credits 3 implemented selective credit policy has distorted the financial system. This policy differentiates the interest rate structure, and encourages to invest low yielding areas without any risk. It also discourages savings and reduces the supply of investable funds. Toe magnitude of the difference between deposit and credit in interest rates and the level of deposit interest rates are influencing the behavior of economic agents, under these conditions» individuals will want to pay more than its price to any good. This willingness to pay will cause an inclination of inflation approximately by the following formula: 1-4- nr.where P is the inclination of inflation, t is the difference between credit and deposit interest rates, nr. is the level of deposit interest rate. To obtain low level of P, the value of $ and nr, must be smaller than one or the level of nr must be higher than o. On the other hand the ratio of investors and savers' real capital gains depends on the following formula: Al t A2 1 1 where A. and A_ are the amounts of capital which gains the same revenue invested and deposited» P is the current inflation rate in the economy. Denominator of the formula is frequently negative, because P is greater than nr^ So, the ratio of real capital -gains takes a value which is smaller then one. This means that savers are loosing their capitals. In addition to these results the income distribution between investors and savers ratio can be stated by the following formula :where A~n and An are the incomes of investor and saeer respectively, n. is the years which has been taken into account. As a result, inflation, savings and income distribution can be effected by the difference between credit and deposit interest rates and the level of deposit rates. Approximate level of interest rates can be regulated by the monetary policy instruments. These instruments cannot be used effectively by monetary outhorities in Turkey so the interest rates were determined independently from the efficiency of economic activities. The econometric studies have shown that the main cause of inflation is the excess money supply in Turkey. To İBvestigate the real sources of excess money supply in Turkey, it is necessary to analyze the industrialization policy of Turkey which is `import substitution`. Especially in the first two planning periods realized high growth rates with relatively low level of inflation rates have been realized. Thus the importance of monetary balances of economy has been disregarded. Then induced low efficient industries pushed up the prices of intermediate and final goods. The firms are monopoly or oligopoly in the economy they can set up their prices as to cover costs, profits and expected inflation rates when the prices of a sector outputs went up, to be able to purchase these outputs the other sectors have to sell their goods with higher prices than before. Under these conditions, it is required to increase money supply which can be shown by exchange equation. Suppose there are two sectors in the economy, the first sector (primary sector) produces 15 goods with a unit price of TL 100 and the second sector (secondary sector) produces 5 goods with a unit- vxi - price of TL 300. And the income velocity is 3. Under these assumptions exchange e uations can be written as follows: M. V = P T TL 1,000 3 - TL 150 20 where M is the money supply, V is the income velocity of money, P is the general price level and T is the transactions number. Suppose that the price of second sector's goods went up to TL 400. Then the price of the first sector has to go up as far as the old level ratio. If it did not go up, the first sector couldn't buy the second sectors' output. If we accept that the income velocity of money is constant the money supply has to be increased as in the following manner: M V * P T TL 1,333 3 = TL 200 20 Under the scenario described above, under the inflation rate is 33%. The above simple model is not unrealistic for Turkey. It is suitable for dualistic structure in our economy. The investments can not take place in the first sector, because the production of its goods is restricted with domestic demand. The amonnt of investment in the second sector is constrained with the available foreign and domestic credits. Since the exchange rates are over valued these sectors cannot export their goods. As a result, if we allow to survive the sectors which their productivity is too different relatively to each other and independent of world prices, the inflation cannot be overCOIne- VJ11 As a result, if we allow, independent of world prices the sectors with too different relative productivities to survive the inflation cannot be overcome,