Türkiye`nin istihdam sorunu ve geleceği

Abstract

Ö Z E T Bu çalışmada Türkiye'nin istihdam sorunu tanıtılmakta ve be lirlenen model doğrultusunda analiz edilmektedir. Birinci bölümde, gelişmekte olan ülkelerin istihdam sorunu belirlenmekte, önemli özellikleri üzerinde durulmaktadır. Bu bölümde ayrıca, Türkiye'deki yetersiz istihdam verilerini kullanma olanağı veren gerçekçi bir model saptanmıştır. İkinci bölümde, belirlenen model doğrultusunda Türkiye'nin istihdam sorunu ayrıntılı bir şekilde analiz edilmektedir. Üçüncü bölüm, izlenen kalkınma stratejisinin istihdam sorunu na etkisine ayrılmıştır. Dördüncü bölümde, D.P.T. 'nin çalışmalarından da yararlanarak, belirlenen model doğrultusunda Türkiye emek piyasasının 1982-2000 dönemi için projeksiyonu yapılmaktadır.

ABSTRACT.._,:._ _____; THE EMPLOYMENT PROBLEM OF TURKEY i and. ?. -I ?'.''?-..? V ITS FUTURE^ J Employment or its inadequacy is the major profoleim of the developing nations » recently, it is an important problem for developed countries too. Despite the concensus about its importance and its overriding character, stii.1, there iş little ag reement about how the emplo yment problem should be defined or measured in the world. Because of economic and social structural differences the employment problem is a very different phenomenon in developing countries than it is in developed ones. In an industrialized country,, wage- labour relation predominates. Employment means working for an employer for wages, while unemployment is defined as seeking of employment Unemployment is the only alternative to employment, so, when the system fails to provide job for people who want to work, open employment exists. ? - In developing societies, except modern industry sector, economy Ls still in a pre-industrial state and traditional ?:ormî of labour relations are prevalent. The modern s«:cto.: pravide work for only a minority. A Lot of people in agriculture and services are working Eor themselves and for others on a traditional rather than wage-employment bases. Rapid urbinization and in- dustrilization create an informal sector in and arounc» growing cities, In this sector, employment is on self employment bisis, and isn't appear in the statistics. For this reasons, the application of the concepts of- II - euıpl cement an-1 unamplovment to an underdeveloped country, in the same meaning applied to an advanced country, ie^ds to somfi strange conclusions. Then, it should be counted tnat the people in employment are those in the modern sector and. the rest of working age are unemployed. In fact, open employment is not so much high. Because, the work structure is different. There are a large number of workers that are not in employment as defined in advanced countries, but they are at work and producing means of livelihood. It can not be said that this distribution of the works is satis factory. May be, open employment is not so much high, but there are a lot of people workers whose activities, in one way or another, unsatisfactory. To cover those. people that form a pool of potential surplus labour, the Concepts of `disguised unemployment` and `underemployment` were deve loped. The point is to redifine the advanced country concept to cover those whose situation is belived to be akin to that of the unemployment, despite apparent activity. The existing of this surplus labor stock, especially in the traditional sector, is the most important employment problem of the developing countries. Because, this potantial labor stock constitutes an important obstacle to develop the labor productivity, In th&. planning period, Turkey has tried to evolve a procedure of economic planning which is centralized on rapid economic development. For this reason, capital inten sive : ndustrilization strategy has been followed. The ;heort,tieal base of the Turkish Development Strategy is multiple sector consistency model at a certain annual GN.P growth. It is not an optimization model, and it does not posses an explicit maximand. In plans, employment expansion is an anticipated resultant of growth strategy.- Ill -, From employment point of view, Turkish Growfeh Strategy and its policy measures are biased against employment expansion. Cronic and rising urban unempioynent » and underemployment along with disguised unemployment in agriculture are rssult of this strategy. If present trends are continued* it is impossible. to provide employment and income opportunities.for the rapidly rising labor - force. Turkey; has: an abundance of low - cost labour, and are short of capital, so, she- should aim at using her cheap and abundant labour to the full and economize on capital which is scarce and expens ive. For Turkey, opening the economy to the world is clearly employment expansionist Turkey has to develop comperative advantage in industries with a large labour component To use Turkeys most plantiful and cheapest resources and to make most economic use of its scarce resources ` the employment strategy should be followed in plans. The enrploi-ment strategy is a set of well-known econorr ic ; planning principles such as optimization, 'sub- optim4 Nation into targets Par eto Optimum conditions, and Eihadov pricirg and social accounting techniques. It Includes « maximum number of people in the production and economic growth process, and, thus provides more equitable income ; distribution than strategies which treat employment as a - conse-quance of growth........'.',.`... ' Analysis of employment questions is peculiarly dependent oh analysis of technology questions, since technologies are largely categorised in terms of their- IV - employment effects, The Turkish Economy during the period of planned development has created far fewer jobs than required to absorb the growing labor force, and the effectiveness of investment in terms of job creation has declined sharply, because the capital intensity of investment over die years has been increased rapidly. The rate of unemployment has been increasing as a result of this s ituation. Turkey has a relatively large proportion of its laborforce in agriculture and a relatively low proportion in industry. This reflects the inadequateness of Turkish employment structure. There is the need for accelerated job creation in non-agricultural sectors, particulary in industry. But the trends in population, labor force and employment constitute a great obstacle to the efforts on this direction. Rapid population increase acts as a brake on economic development, because it has a negative impact on changes in many crucial economic indications like per capita gross capital formation, government consumption, manufacturing, exports, act. The relavitely high rate of population growth` in developing countries causes unfavorable age structure, unbalanced population distribution, and inadeguately educated and trained manpower. These aspects of population constitute obstructions to economic development too. Life standarts can not be raised unless aggregate output increases more rapidly than total population. In brief, a decrease in birth rate seems a simple enough solution. Labor force tends to increase as population grows. A rapid increase in the labor force is the grate handicap to achivfe full employment. The following in labor force- V - trends, in the labor force and employment have made it difficult to solve employment problem of Turkey during the planning period: First, the total labor force has grown more slowly than the total population of working age, Second, total employment has increased more slowly than the labor force-.Finally, the total number of' unemployed has increared both absolutely and relative to the size of the labor force. The measures aiming to solve the employment problem of Turkey may be put into two g'roups. One is related to reduce the labor supply, the other is related to increase employment. Given the heavy concentration of labor force ia agriculture, industrilization is a possible solution. But, those policy measures aimed at expanding the large-scale Modem technology sector until it encompasses the whole ı economy, are, for many countries, virtually ruled out because of dynamLc trends in labour markets. On the other hand, the role of institutional factors like minumum wages, labour unions, and the behavior of wages in. the Turkish labor Market appears, large by comparison with other developing countries. To find idealized solution.to the employment problem, these factors should be analized carefully.