Çevre sorunlarının ekonomik modellerle incelenmesi

Abstract

ÖZET ÇEVRE SORUNLARININ EKONOMİK MODELLERLE İNCELENMESİ Bu çalışmada çevre kirlenmesinin ekonomik analizi incelenmiş, ekonomik sisteme çevre faktörünün dahil edildiği bir model önerilmiştir. Ekonomik sistem üretim ve tüketim sektörlerinden oluşur. Bir hammadde ve bir alıcı ortam olan çevre ile bu sektörler arasında sürekli bir alışveriş vardır. Bu alışverişin kontrol altında tutulması ile ekonomik gelişmenin hız kazanması ve çevrenin korunması sağlanır. Bunun için çevre faktörünü de içine alan ekonomik modellere ihtiyaç vardır. Çalışmanın maksat ve kapsamı ve genel tanıtılması birinci bölüm de verilmiştir. İkinci bölümde biyolojik ve ekolojik sistemlerin dinamik yapısı ile ekonominin dinamik yapısı arasındaki benzerlikler incelenmiştir. Bu benzerliklerin bir girdi-çıktı analizi ile iyi bir şekilde tanımlanması sistemden sisteme bilgi alışverişi sağlayabilir. Üretim ve tüketim sektörlerinin faaliyetleri sonunda oluşan atıkların çevreye verilmesi dolayısıyla birbirleri üzerinde meydana getir dikleri ters etkiler üçüncü bölümün konusu olmuştur. Ayni bölümde bu istenmeyen etkilerin genel matematik ifadeleri de verilmiştir. Dördüncü bölümde ise farklı maksatlara yönelik, önceden geliştirilmiş yaygın olarak kullanılan ekonomik çevre modelleri özetlenmiş, bunların kullanılma sahaları ile ilgili;bilgiler verilmiştir. Klâsik ekonomik girdi-çıktı modeline ayrılan beşinci bölümde bu modelin yapısı ve kullanılması açıklanmıştır. Altıncı bölümde ekonomik girdi-çıktı modeline bir çeşit çıktı konumunda olan kirletici faktörü de dahil edilmiştir. Bu faktörün modele dahil edilmesi ile mal ve hizmet fiyatlarının ne şekilde etkilendiği gösterilmiştir. Ayni bölümde model kirlenmeyi, kaynağında önleyici bir sektör (arıtma v.b.) dahil edilmesiyle sektörün mal ve hizmet fiyatlarına olan etkilerini açıklayacak şekilde genişletilmiştir. Yedinci bölümde ise atıkların ve çevre faktörünün refah kavramı üzerindeki etkisi incelenmiştir. Çalışmadan sağlanan sonuçlar sekizinci bölümde özet halinde verilmiştir.

SUMMARY THE INVESTIGATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS BY USING ECONOMICAL MODELS This study is on the economic models which are interested on the relationships between economic and environmental sector. Economic sector has been composed of the production and consumption sector in a selected region. The aim of the production sector is to get the welfare of society better.For achieving that it products some useful goods for sale. To make this, it needs various materials from the other sectors and environment, as an input. While the production is going on, various wastes have been formed. These wastes are the unwanted outputs of production sector and they have been discharged to receving media as an input to environment. The consumption sector (or society) has also produced some wastes which should be discharged to environment like the production wastes. Although the environment is a resource supplier for the production and consumption sector, the accumulation of the wastes has been reduced the resource capabilities of environment. One can say that -increasing production increases the welfare level of society. But increasing production also increases the wastes together. So the increasing welfare is constrained by the environmental problems. It may be saw that there is a cycling in a material flow. The environment supplies some materials to production and consumption sectors and, some materials formed in production and consumption activities discharged to environment as waste. So the output of a sector may be the input of the others. It has to be understand generally because the goods will also be a waste finally. An economic model shouLd be characterize the interrelationships between economic and environmental sectors analytically and also intended to relate decisions on the use of scarce environmental resources to necessarily related uses of other scarce resources (investment and operating inputs in public and private sectors) and,to provide criteria for ranking different environment improvement and management policy alternatives.The introduction and aim of study have been given in the first chapter. The purpose of the second chapter is to explain some of the more salient similarities between nature sciences like, the biology, ecology and economy. These analogies are profoundly rooted in the fact that the ultimate subject matter of biology, ecology and economy is one, viz.,. the `life process`. Most of biology concentrates on the `within Skin` life process the exception being ecology, with focuses on the `outside skin` life process. Economics is the part of the ecology which studies the `outside skin` life process as it is dominated by commodities and their interrelations. Total life process has considered both in its steady - state aspect. Some economics have found the biological analogies useful. The circular flow of blood and the circular flow of money, the many parallel phenomena of specialization, exchange, interdepence are well known. All servicable organic activities consume tissue and expend energy, the biological costs of services they render. Though this economy may not correspond in close quantitative fashion it must be taken as a groundwork for conscious valuation. The close similarity of the basic `within skin` life process of metabolism (anabolism and catabolism) with the `outside skin` process of economics (production and consumption). In either process the only material output is waste. The purpose (value produced) of the manitenance of life and the purpose of economic process is the maintenance of economically development and increase of the society welfare. The third chapter is about the economic effects of waste outputs, i.e., externalities. In the context of environmental economics the most important source of market failure is the divergence between the producers evaluation of the costs of his activities and the valuation by society as a whole. This divergence typically arises because of the presence of what are called external effects or externatilities. If a pollution caused by any sector, it has effected the other sectors which have use the same environmental component, so the production functions of effected sectors has not been dependent only on its inputs and outputs, it also dependent en `Üı e output of the polluters. These negative interrelations between sectors have also been named as `externalities` economically. The matematical modelling of externalities has been given by using marginal production terms simply. Some models developed previously have been included in fourth chapter. In this chapter, at first the purpose and structure of any model and the some definitions about the economic models have been given. In the same chapter, the difficulties and uncertainties in developing stage of any economic model have been discussed. Then some models usedfrequently in economic evaluation have been introduced. These are, 1. Cost - Benefit Models 2. Projection Models 3. Multiobjective Planning Models 4. Integre Environmental Models 5. Optimization Models All of these models have not been developed for the same purposes. In last two models the economy factor is only one element of them. For example, in the multi-objective models the planning occurs at many levels of any social organization. The economic evaluation of environment is one of them. Even though the scope of the plans will differ, the process of planning at each level is generally the same. The goals are proposed directly or indirectly. The inp`ut - output models have been included in fifth chapter. Fundamentally, most of the mathematical models are based on I - 0 models. Some of the economic modells also use the I - 0 model when they handle the system approach. These economic models construct a connection between the inputs and outputs economically by using a material balance developed by Leontief (1930). The computation of model has been used matrix analysis. The computation of I - 0 analysis has also been explained in this chapter. With the most general explanation, the general equation of model, by using the matrix notation is; [I - A] X = Y X = [I - a]_1y X:is the unknown output vector of economic system. A: is the ` structural matrix` of the system which includes the technical input coefficients. Y:is the given amounts vector of products to be delivered to final consumers. I:fs the unit matris The technical coefficients determine how large the total outputs of the commodities must be »if they are to satisfy not only given direct demand (for each of the commodities) by the final consumers, i.e., the households, but also satisfy the intermediate demand depending in its turn on the total level of output in each of the productive sectors. XI or Where,The model use to estimate the unknown outputs against to given demands or for given production level defined by the technical coefficients what amount of products have been given to final consumers. Model also estimates the prices of commodities. The sixth chapter is about the economic modelling of environmental pollution. The pollutants are some by - products of regular economic activities, i.e., the production and consumption. They are related in a measurable way to a particular production or consumption process. These pollutants are also some kind of output of those processes. Therefare including them to the economic input - output matrix and monitoring their effects on the other outputs and prices will be very useful to control both economic and environment system together*. The computation of model has been employed the 1.0 model, estimations summarized in the fifth chapter. Therefore the addition of pollutant technical coefficients to I. 0 model aforementioned, it has been introduced an extended input - output model. These pollutants or undesirable outputs are linked directly to the network of physical relationships that govern the day - to - day operations of the economic system. The technical interdepence between the levels of desirable and undesirable outputs may be described in terms of structural coefficients similar to those used to trace the structural interdepence between production and consumption. As a matter of fact, it can be described and analyzed as an integral part of that network. In this chapter a pollution preventing sector added to the model also. This sector has been placed between economic and environmental sectors. Therefore the material balance has been established once again, considering the output of ân economic system is sum of the commodities and pollutants or wastes. While the commodities are the input to consumption sector the waste outputs are the input to pollution preventing sector. The output of that sector is `the sum of cleared wastes and some by - products, for example, for an activated sludge process, the waste sludge, etc. The effect, of wastes to general equilibrum has been discussed in seventh chapter. For a product, the price estimation explained with considering the waste flows also. The results of the study and suggestions have been sumerized in chapter eight. These are; 1. The simulation of biologic and economic systems has been explained. The associate properties of those systems have jbeen discussed. 2. Some most - common economic models developed before have been explained and interpreted. xiiAn Input - Output Model contained environmental pollution and pollution preventing sector has been proposed. By use that model. a) A production level can be estimated at a given demand level. b) The prices of commodities can be estimated according to given demand level. c) In a given pollution level the amount of products and their prices can be estimated. d) At a given technologic leveljthe amount of pollutant has occured and the contribution of a production sector to the total pollution can be estimated. e) In the case of any pollution level adjustment, the effects of that to production and consumption sectors can be monitored. f) In any technological change, effects the pollution level can be estimated. g) In a general equilibrum and welfare economy the prices which have effected from the waste flow can be estimated. XIII