1997 yılında yapılan halka arzlarda şirket değerlemesi ve performans analizi

Abstract

SUMMARY Providing finance by IPO ( Initial Public Offering ) is a comparatively a new type of resource. Recent ago, while firms were ensuring financing needs by internal resources such as capital and profits, in the cases when shareholders equity was not sufficient enough, they were inclined towards bank credits. Actually the firms are required to meet the need of long due debt by capital markets, but because of a lack of such kind of a market, even the prime cost had been higher in amount they had been using cash market. However with the increasing of public debts, governments due to close this gap started to take huge amount of fund from cash markets and didn't leave behind any resources for the private sector. According to all these reasons beginning from 1990, firms being in need of new resources, inclined towards capital market, whose substructure had been prepared and whose arrangements had been established. Starting with this year, from 500 big industry companies, 128 companies had IPO. Even it can not be claimed that this number is enough, it can be concluded that significant changes are carrying out. It's the duty of organizers of capital market and also the duty of participants to ensure that IPO is more efficiently established both for exporters and also for `small investors`. In relation to this, there are many duties that fall on Capital Market Committee(SPK), Istanbul Stocks Exchange Market(IMKB), and brokerage firms. In order to gain the inactive funds back to the economy, a capital market which is active, trustworthy and which has efficient liquidity is being aimed. 133In this study IPO'S aims.applications and successes are concerned in various angles and were inquired in a detailed study. In the initial section IPO'S definition has been explained and participants' duties and authorization has been studied. *ln the second section a detailed study about IPO in Turkey during 1997 and in relation to this investors and firms profiles were created. *ln the third section aim, places of usage and difficulties of IPO were explained. In the fourth one various methods and ratios used in valuation is observed and moreover has further deepen the discussion with its positive and negative aspects..Application of valuation methods in Turkey and all round the world and its outcomes and successes were examined in the fifth section. *ln the sixth section ratio analyses are tested in Istanbul Stocks Exchange Market (IMKB) and it was observed and explained within the perspective of answering the question: Which valuation method will give a better result?.Performance of. the shares that are initially offered to public are observed as a period of one day and annually in the seventh section. 134*The changes of inputs in balance sheets and income tables of firms, before and after the IPO, were examined on the basis of change and its results are going to be evaluated. A firm's initial public offering of its shares is a long, time taking process. A significant portion of this process is composed of pricing, that is to say stock valuation. In this phase, common stocks that are going to offer to the public investors are examined in details by various methods. What is trying to determined is the real value of the firm's, however it shouldn't be expected to reach a perfect value, that is hundred percent reliable. In this study it has been experienced that a greater portion of professionals and investors preferred simple ratio analysis's that are resulting rapidly, rather than detailed ones which are like those discounted cash flows analysis or dividend discount models. Reasons for this are that firstly as the method gets more complex, there is necessity that more variables should be guessed and secondly a study of this type is quite hard regarding Turkey's features like high inflation, rapidly changing interest and growth rates. In relation to this, when numerous input expectations' declinations are joined together, the results of the complicated models can differ from the actual values. Due to the fact also the investors use the same ratio analyses, researchers easily overcome the difficulty of persuading the investors. When ratios are being proposed 135as a reason in purchasing - selling advising, the power of persuasion is much more in relation to the fact that most of the investors know these ratios and are able to calculate. In our study Price / Earnings (P/E) ratio is found to be most used method with a great difference rather than the other ratios. While trying to investigate whether there is a specific, underlying meaning why investors especially rely on this ratio, it's found out that P/E ratio both in Turkey and also in the rest of the world markets bring corrected actual rates of return. Even there is the fact that the other ratio analyses provide earnings above the index's return, the most successful valuation methods are the ones that are dependent on firm's net profit amount: Price/Net Income, Price/Net Profit + Amortization and the Net Profit Rises. Due to fact that these ratios are being used mostly and becoming successful in initial public offering, they are being examined very carefully. It was statistically approved that ratio analysis are good techniques to increase net gains over index. For example, the first group which contains the best shares with lower P/E, gained 145% in 1997, where IMKB - 100 index increased only 105.7%. Also the significance of ratio groups' returns have been tested and found that these returns have been statistically significants. Investors while deciding upon joining public offerings, firstly give priority to profit numbers. When firms performances - whose shares are offered to public - are being examined appropriate to the literature it's found out that there is the first day's performance. Mainly, in the first day of stocks being offered to public, had meaningful gains. The performance valuations that are longed for one year had 136concluded in indefinite results on the subject of corrected gains on an index basis. The additional gains that had been obtained on the first day, couldn't have been able to continued in the following months. In relation to this, when the underlying reason of price performances' decreases had been investigated, the firm balance sheet were studied in detail and were compared as between the values before the stocks offered to public and after they are offered. After the offering the net profit rises ratio which are the mostly considered ratio in investors' decision making, rapidly decreases falls behind the general average of the market. That is to say while the firms have very good balance sheets before the initial public offering after the offering they continuously go down. However firms whose shares offered to public, are expected to demonstrate a better performance, because in general the resource capital that are obtained by initial public offerings or stay as an issue premium in the firms and strengthen the real capital. If we try to explain this decrease in balance performances, we should turn back to the initial stages of initial offering. In this phase the establishment that makes the initial public offering and the person who sells the shares or the institution reaches a time of period when a significant decision has to be put forward. The share rates in our stock - exchanges market except some of the examples don't reflect the actual value of the firm and moreover are accepted to be very low by everyone. The value that is obtained by investors taking specifically attention to profit degree. While the investors who participate in initial public offering look at the last line of the income table, the firm owners who supply the offering, see the plot of the vacant land, building site, machine park and added to all these, 137the most significant feature the efforts of years. The firm owners who consider the calculations, that are put forward as too low could able to demand a rise in the price of the initial public offering. In this position, many adjustments could be prepared within the limits of law. Since everyone pays attention to net profit, the most efficient way is to demonstrate the net profit higher and the simplest way to accomplish this is to calculate the amortisation as lower, to allocate the interests resulted from credits and differences of rate of exchanges' costs by writing over inventory and investments. Even there are firms open to stock exchange, which prepares their income table in such a manner, they are in the minority as number. Discussing academically, the costs allocation perhaps could be accepted, but then while comparing between the firms in stocks, it will be like collecting apples and pears, because as some companies will be writing down their interest costs as expenses, the others will be adding them on inventories or on investments and announce different results. Unfortunately all these lacks are due to the fact that `accounting of inflation` is not being carried out in Turkey. In the situation of inflation where there is an inflation up to 100 percent, taking the activities on a nominal basis destroy all the valuation methods. If our aim is to increase the trust in capital market accounting of inflation, which will cause firm evaluations to be more real and objective, should be started in all means. In addition to this, the work areas of independent supervision firms should be extended or introduce new ranking institutions. 138As a result, Turkey like the other developed countries should create firm ranking. In the phase of initial public offering the evaluation of securities can contain some subjective points. Depending upon all the facts that we discussed above the independent ranking firms both during initial public offering and also after the offering can enlighten the investors about the financial structures and situations of the firms which will eventually cause to an increase of the participants in the market on the long term. 139