Türkiye`de hanehalkı sayısının ve konut gereksiniminin hanehalkı büyüklüğü temelinde tahmini: Hanehalkı reisliği hızı yönteminin Türkiye verilerine uygulanması (1990-2025)

Abstract

ABSTRACT We are celebrating the 75. Anniversary of the Republic at the eve of the 21st century. Forecast is being made in all fields in order to improve the assessments and preparations for the country future. Forecasts on housing needs, housing quality and urban poverty which are also included in various documents of international significance, such as `Habitat Agenda`, `Agenda 21` and `Agenda 2000` carries crucial importance within this framework. Especially `Agenda 2000` and `Habitat Agenda` foresees the undertaking of activities by all country's aiming at provision of low-cost housing and adequate environmental conditions. Housing need which is one of the basic human needs is a phenomena which is affected by demographic processes in addition to socio-economic processes. Therefore, the studies aiming at determining the future housing needs, necessitate information on demographic characteristics of the population such as population growth, fertility and mortality rates, internal and external migratory patterns, household size and marital status. This study aims to estimate the number of households based on the household size by using headships rates. The projection period is the first quarter of the 21 St century. The number of households between 1995 and 2025 has been tried to be predicted by using number of households in years 1985 and 1990. According to the results of projections niLde in the study, the number of household will be increasing trend during that period. In addition, the number of one person households at the age group of 20-24 and also their ratio over all one person households with increase in overall country. A similar increase is probable to take place at the age groups of 60-64 and 65 +. It has been predicted that 30-34 age group will have the highest ratio in two persons households in that period. This situation can be an 160indicator of that the average marriage age in Turkey will be higher in the fist quarter of 21 st century. 35-39 age group illustrates an increase in there persons households and this can be interpreted as that is the age of having children although a similar trend can be observed in four persons household, there is a marked decrease in the households of size greater than five. Present housing trend has been demonstrated by using the information about dwelling units having construction permits and occupancy permits at the settlements where municipality is available, in 1980-1990 period. It is supported by the results that the dwelling units having occupancy permit met 50 percent of housing demand. In the same period construction of the dwelling units whose number is equal to the number of 94 percent of added household. If the rate of construction goes on identically, mere won't be any shortage of dwelling units in the prediction period until the fist quarter of 21. st century. 161