Demographic and ethnic characteristics of Central Asia and their future impacts on the social, economical and political aspects of the region

Abstract

1 HACETTEPE UNIVERSITY, INSTITUTE OF POPULATION STTJDÎES ABSTRACT DEMOGRAPHIC AND ETHNIG CHARACTERISTICS OF CENTRAL ASlA AND THEIR FUTURE IMPACTS ON THE SOCİAL, ECONOMICAL AND POL1TICAL ASPECTS OF THE REGION By Osman Aray Supervisor of the study: Prof. Dr. Sunday Uner `Demographic and Ethnic Characteristics of Central Asia and Their Future Impacts )n Social, Economical and Political Aspects of the Region'` is a thesis submitted in iartial fulfıllment of the requirements for the degree of Ph.D. of Social and Economic >emography to Institute of Population Studies, Hacettepe University. The objective of the study is to analyze the demographic and ethnic composition of ne Central Asia in clo.se connection with its geographical, historical, cultural, social and conomic aspects, to describe these factors from a historical perspective, to give a etailed pİcture of the present day Central Asia in regard to its demographic, ethnic, conomic, and social aspects and finally, to analyse the impacts of the Regions emographic Characteristics on its ruture developments The general approach of the methodology of the study is inductive, holistic, escriptive and analytic. As can be seen from the Table of Contents of the Study. fırst of ali the Region ave been deseribed by historical, cultural, geographical and climatic means. Then a brief istory of the Region, including some of its anthropological aspects, up to Russian- oviet period is presented, since they are the early roots of the present situation and evelopments which are taking shape in the Region.Central Asia during the Russian-Soviet period has been analysed in detail, since this period highly influenced, even determined the present-day situation of the republics of the Central Asia. I A special importance has bee» given to the demographic and ethnic structures of Central Asian republics after their independence. Almost all of the most updated data is presented for every republic and for the sake of comparison, summary tables which includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan is disposed, including their analytical wording. Also related data of Turkey and the world is presented in order (o make healthy comparisons and to show the demographic development levels of the Central Asian republics. j Relations between Central Asian republics and Turkey after independence has been introduced briefly in order to show the future role of Turkey in the Region.Finally. [present and future impacts of Demographic and Ethnic structures on socials economic, iand geo-political aspects of the Region has been discussed. i j Here I want to emphasize the special situation of Republic of Azerbaijan, a turkic republic which has many anthropologic, linguistic and ethnic similarities with Turkey and Central Asian republics. Azerbaijanians migrated from Central Asia to their present homeland around 1 1th Century. From that time on, their historical, social and economic ' developments has been grown much differently than Central Asia, mainly because of their integration to Trans-Caucasian Region. That's why Azerbaijan, although it is a turkic republic, excluded from this stuây, but relevant demographic data about ; Azerbaijan have been presented in the main tables for comparison and additional, information. Also, some detailed demographic data of Azerbaijan, without comments, is ; presented in the Appendix. A special survey for data collection regarding the study has not been conducted because of the geographical, political and financial reasons. Instead, a very detailed and extensive literature reading has been done, totalling almost 45 000 pages of books,* articles, periodicals and URL ( Uniform Resource Locator) documents. All these documents which were utilized during the study are presented in the Bibliography. ! The demographical data of Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan regarding the p^>st-independence period are considered to be ` exclusive' ' by the official authorities of these republics. I obtained these data from the state bodies of these republics through '] friendly relations`, which is formed by very intensive and trustworthy relations bietween them and myself since two decades. As a consequence, the demographical data presented in this study for the post-independence period of these republics are 'unique' in the world literature. We hope that these data which is directly translated from Russian to English from the exclusive official documents will be fruitful for the future studies of Other demographers which are interested with the Region. Also I believe that, my studies and direct observations in the Region which lasted (almost 20 years, contributed a lot to this study. The findings and conclusion of the. study can be summarized as follows; 1. From 2nd century B.C. to 15th century A.D., Central Asia played a determining role in the world history. Nomadic empires of Central Asia changed the path of history by their raids to Europe, Middle East, India and Russia. During this period the mode of production in Central Asia can be defined as `nomadic pastoralism`. Sedentary i civilisations could only be found in the `oasis region` of Central Asia. i I Ih Nomadic raids from Central Asia came to an end in the 1 5 century. Especially in the `Timurides period` Central Asia lived through its golden age. Samarkand, Bukhara, Khiva became the scientific and artistic centers of the World. Discovery of naval trade routes marked the end of this period by shifting emphasis away from traditional trade routes such as the silk-road and spice-road which had been supplying.great material wealth to the region. Also, wide use of fire arms ended the supremacy of the nomadic cavalry which had been the main military advantage of the nomadic empires.I From the 16th century to the Russian invasion which took place in the late 19* century, Central Asia lost its significance in world affairs. Poverty and religious fundamentalism were the main characteristics prevailing in the region during this period. Tsarist Russia saw the region as a source of raw materials, and especially cotton. No i visible major changes in the economic or social life of the region could be perceived during this period. After the `Great October Revolution` Central Asia, which up to that time was i known as `Turkestan` was divided artificially by the Soviets into different republics. Soviets also spent great efforts to reidentify - Russify the people of the region* but could not accomplish their aim.. Soviets also considered the Region as a source of raw materials to supply the industrialized parts of the USSR. During the Soviet period, the Region suffered great ecological disasters for the sake of fulfilling the `plan targets` that jwere drawn up directly by Moscow. In spite of all the adverse developments* we must I {admit in all fairness that during the Soviet period in Central Asia, many positive changes also took place in the spheres of industry, education, health-care, transport, etc. I i 2. We do not have any data regarding the population of Central Asia before the end of the 19th Century. There are only some assumptions based on the. social and technological levels of the Central Asian societies for different periods, and, different kinds of mode of production. The first census was held in the Region by the tsarst Russia on 1897. Second census was held by the Soviets on 1926, which is followed by the regular censuses untill 1989. After 1991, the year of independence of Central Asian republics, demographical data collection in the Region, to an extend, lost its routine and standardization, because of the different standards and needs of each republic, and further, because of lack of specialists, know-how and money. 3. Starting from the Russian invasion in late 19th Century, the ethnic structure of Central Asia drammatically altered by the immigration of the Slavic population. Thisl immigration accelerated after the `Great October Revolution`, and, after the second wfcrld war reached the peak. As a consequence of this enormous immigration, in mid- 19^70's, more than half of the population of Kazakhstan consisted of non-indigenous population, while Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan also had a considerable i proportion of Slavic population. Besides Russians, Tatars, Germans, Jews and Koreans also immigrated, or in more ptoper words, forced to immigrate to the Region starting from 1941, which increased the proportion of non-indigenous population in the Region 4. The demographic aspects of the Region changed fundamentally starting from 1920's: Despite the demographic catasthropes (genocides) caused by Stalin's ]` ideological cleanisation`, collectivisation campaigns that was held in 1930' s in zakhstan, and the second world war, we observe a steady population growth in the £ egion for the period 1926-1945. But the main `population boom` is observed in the region after this period. In Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan throughout the I960' s and jl970's, the total population grew at least three times faster than they had during the I previous two decades. Similar patterns of overall population growth were witnessed to a 1 lesser degree, in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. During the same period, life expectancies at birth increased, infant and child mortality rates decreased significantly. Also health services and the status of women in the society improved. 5. Since the non-indigenous population of Central Asian republics already passed the period of ' ' demographic transition' ', and hence, having low population growth rates for the same period, we can easily observe that the `population boom` witnessed in Central Asian republics for this period stemmed from the very high fertility rates of the indigenous population. 'j.,...-.^JDyring this period indigenous people of Central Asia preserved their traditional big families, married earlier, and attained very high fertility rates, which, is also encouraged by the state policies.6. Total Fertility Rates of the indigenous population of the Central Asian republics tend to decrease starting from the mid- 1 970` s. Also women's age at first marriage has rjeen reached the low limit of what is demographically termed the `European marriage pattern' ', especially in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. Altough this modernisation patterns are observed in all Central Asian republics, it is expected that the `demographic tlnomentum' ', affected by still high fertility rates and the young age structure of the j population, which is a consequence of the very high fertility rates of the recent past, will I continue in the coming decades. This is especially true for the southern republics of i Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan i » I j 7. Uzbekistan is the most populous republic in Central Asia and its population jdensity exceeds both the world and low and medium income level countries' (LMIC) (average. Although Kazakhstan has the second largest population, due to its vast territory, 'the population density is very low. Kyrgyzstan stands in the mid-way. In this respect, a special importance must be paid to Turkmenistan. Turkmenistan's population and population density is rather low, but since the large part of the country consists of deserts, ) the population density is very high in the rare oasis zones of the country, scattered I through Amu-Darya river. j Infant mortality rates of Central Asian republics increased after the independence in accordance with the deteriorating economic and social spheres, and became considerably higher than the world and LMIC averages. The highest rate is observed in Turkmenistan, the poorest and socially least developed country among Central Asian republics. Life expectancy at birth of males also decreased after the independence, and became lower than the world and LMIC averages. For females life expectancy at birth is almost at the same level with LMIC countries.. Again, Turkmenistan has the lowest life expectancy for both males and females, because of the reasons stated for the high infant mortality rate of this republic.^ j Percentage of urban population of Central Asian republics are lower than the world average, except Kazakhstan. But we must note that the urban population of Kazakhstan, to a great extend consists of Slavic population, and, rural population is almost completely of titular nationality. In Turkmenistan, the big majority of the urban population is living iri the only big city of the republic, Ashgabad city. I 8. The annual population growth rate of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are around njull as of 1996. This is due to the continuing emigration of the non-indigenous papulation from these republics. The emigration of Slavic nationalities from these republics slowed down since mid- 1 990' s. As a consequence we might expect that in the Coming decade the population growth will increase and the percentage of the titular ijiationalities will rise in these republics due to the still high fertility rate among the same. In Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan the annual population growth rate is above 2 percent annually for 1996, in spite of the continuing emigration of non-indigenous population from these republics. 9. Age dependency ratio is considerably high in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan due to the excess population in 0-15 age group, which is a natural cosequence of high fertility rates. In Kazakhstan this ratio is rather low, because of the high percentage of Slavic population in the republic. These high age dependency ratios are creating serious burdens on the already j deteriorated economies of Central Asian republics. Also marriage rates are declining and the divorce rates are growing, in Central i Asian republics in the recent years, because of the worsening economic and social j conditions. i i 10. In sum, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, with their high fertility rates^ large families, desire to have more childeren, high age dependency ratios, high percentage of rural populations and high infant mortality rates, demonstrating a typical profile of a third-world country which is experiencing `Demographic Transition`, However, inI However, in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, starting from the mid- 1970' s fertility began t<j> decline and did not reverse. We might assume that these two republics already passed i t<b the 'second stage, of demographic transition` which is characterized by the slight but steady decline of the fertility rates. The population boom in these two republics will continue in the coming decades, because of the still high fertility rates and the age Structure of the population created by the very high fertility rates of the recent past. ! The indigenous populations of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan demonstrates similar i patterns, although more moderate, with their neighbours. This similarity is much more obvious in the rural areas and in the southern regions, where indigenous population consists the large majority. Today the population growth rate of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan is null, because of the high emigration. But since the emigration is loosing its importance in the recent years, we might expect that the annual population growth rates of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan will rise in the coming years due to the high fertility among the indigenous population. This is especially true for Kyrgyzstan, where fertility rates are higher and the percentage of non-indigenous population already dropped to a mere 15 percent. 11. The immigration of Slavic population to Central Asia came to an end in mid- 1970' s, and, reversed starting from the end of the same decade. The emigration of the non-indigenous population from the Region continued in the 1980' s, and after the independence, reached the peak Although the emigration pattern slowed down after 1995, it is still continuing in the the present day. The main reason of this huge emigration is the different ethnic, cultural, linguistic and religious legacies of the European population living in Central Asia, which, could not accomplish social-identification with the existing cultures of the titular nationalities. Today, almost all the Germans and Jews left the Region, and the only reason of the slower rate of emigration of Russians after 1995 is the deteriorating economic and social conditions in Russia, Ukraina and Belorussia. As a consequence of this emigrations -and due to the high population growth of the indigenous population, in 1997, for the first time in their history the Kazakhs became majority ina their republics. Also, the Slavic population decreased to 15 % of the population in i K^rgyzstan, and, to less than 10 % in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. 12. One might come to the conclusion that the huge emigration of the non- iridigenous population from the Regien is beneficiary for the Central Asian republics, hjence, as a result of this outflow, the ethnic structure of these republics will become more hjomogenous, and, in the long run the ethnic problem will be solved. But the emigrating European population is the most well-educated, urbanised, skilled lobour-force of Central Asia and the mass-scale emigration of these, creates a serious burden on the economies of tjhe Central Asian republics. ' 13. In spite of the worse-case scenarios that were mentioned in many of the studies regarding the region, today, Central Asia seems to have attained social stability, at least Jfor the near future. To attain long-run stability, to overcome the problems that have i jaccumulated through centuries and also to satisfy the growing needs of its fast-growing young population, Central Asia must sustain a steady economic growth. Without the J inflow of foreign means of production it seems almost impossible to achieve this goal.. Today the inflow of foreign capital, technology and know-how to Central Asian republics 1 is still not sufficient to attain a steady economic growth. The economic, social and i psychological conditions that these countries inherited from the Soviet period also play a negative role. We regret to say that their legacy which is displayed by lack of democratic institutions, corruption, excessive bureaucracy, lack of entrepreneurship, violation of human rights, etc. is still going on at full speed in these republics. All these negative phenomena, together with the concern over the long-term stability of the region limit the inflow of foreign investments to the region. 14. If the Central Asian republics can not achieve a steady economic growth in the long-run, the most probable future scenario for the Region is the ethnic conflicts between Kazakhs and Russians in Kazakhstan, which, inevitably will spread to Kyrgyzstan, and severe social and political turmoils in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, due to the growingi 10 J a influence of any radical ideology- i.e. fundamental islam, on the young, unemployed masses of youth, formed by the high population growth in these republics. The creation of independent states in the region, with viable economies and stable political systems is still a distant ideal* There are modest opportunities for constructive i inlvolvement by outside powers to facilitate trade and flow of technology, promote educational development, and attend to some of the ecological disasters in the region. But sljiould conflicts within the region grow, as seems likely, outsiders' temptation to intervene is likely to be great, with destructive and unpredictable consequences. I I j. Perhaps it is too much to hope that the new political leaders in these states realize that independence depends upon their capacity to reduce ethnic conflicts within their borders, avoid quarrels with their neighbours over disputed territories, and establish cooperative economic and political relations with one another and with their neighbours. Should they fail to do so, they will not only jeopardize the independence of their own States, but they will also increase the possibility of wider regional conflicts. J The most effective way to influence the events in a positive way in the Region is to establish strong, continuous economic presence of the developed nations which can be able to make large scale investments, to transfer the finance and technology to the Region which can solve the growing economic bottle-necks.Republic of Turkey established very fruitfull economic, political and cultural ties with the Region since their independence, J albeit some mistakes done in the initial period. Also Turkish companies completed many medium and large scale projects in the Region, and thousands of small scale Turkish companies are active today especially in the service sectors of these republics. Thus, Turkish companies accumulated a great experience and know-how in the Region, which is also backed by the cultural and historical similarities between Turkey and the Region. Turkey must utilize this great advantage by establishing economic cooperation with the developed countries which has the capital and high-technology, through joint-ventures and other joint investments, which is urgently needed in the Region. In this case, Turkey will contribute a lot to the general economic re-building, thus, political stability of the11 Central Asia. However, Western firms require stable governments before they will consider doing business in these countries, and none of the current regimes in Central Asia is likely to prove sufficiently stable in the long run. Central Asia, not for the first time in its long history, is in flux. The forces for and agjainst stability are evenly balanced. If the economic situation begins to improve and confidence returns, it is likely that the republics will consolidate their independence and achieve a high level of prosperity. If, however, the tensions within society are heightened, the region could descend into internecine civil strife, as in Tajikistan. The situation is complicated by the fact that it is not merely domestic events but also the influence of external forces that will determine the outcome