Rational expectations, the natural rate hypothesis and stabilisation policy debate: A test for Turkish economy 1965-1986

Abstract

OZETCE Bu calismada Rasyonel Beklentiler Hipotezi çerçevesinde oluşan makro iktisat tartismalari incelendi. Bu bağlamda yap i lan ampirik testlerden biri olan ve issizlik orani ve reel tıasilaya sadece beklenmeyen parasal buyume oraninin etki yaptigi hipotezini test eden Barro'nun iki düzeyli testi Tilkiye ekonomisinin 1965-1986 donemi için uygulandi. Test sonuclari iddia edilen hipotezi destekledi. Böylece para politikasinda supris değişmelerin beklenen değişmelerden daha etkili olduğu hatta yalnizca supriz değişmelerin reel değişkenleri etkilediği sonucuna varildi.

ABSTRACT In this dissertation, the aacroeconomic discussions which are shaped around the Rational Expectations Hypothesis was investigated. Barrows two stage test which investigates the hypothesis that only unanticipated movements in money affect the real economic variables like unemployment rate or the level of outputs was applied to Turkish economy for the 1965-1986 period. Test results can not reject the hypothesis thus it is concluded that only the unanticipated monetary growth is effective in determining the level of real variables such as unemployment and real output. Clearly this result implies that surprise monetary policies are more effective than the expected ones, Infact our accepted hypothesis claims that it is only these surprise monetary policies that effect the real- variables.