A comparison of monetary policy rules for turkey

Abstract

Bu tezde alternatif para politikalar¬n¬nmakroekonomik sonuçlar¬n¬Türkiyeaç¬s¬ndan kar¸s¬la¸st¬rmak için tekelci rekabet ve Calvo yat esneksizli¼gi duru-munda dinamik genel denge modeli kurulmu¸stur. Analiz edilen dört politikakural¬¸söyledir: ticarete konu olmayan mallar¬n enasyon hedeemesi, sabitpara arz¬, sabit döviz kuru ve Taylor kural¬. Küçük ölçekli aç¬k ekonominindenge dinamikleri yurtiçi verimlilik seviyesi, hükümet harcamalar¬, yabanc¬faiz haddi ve yabanc¬yat seviyesindeki ekzojen ¸soklarla yarat¬lm¬¸st¬r. Nice-lik aç¬s¬ndan kayda de¼ger dinamik farkl¬l¬klar¬¸soktan sonraki ilk dönemdegözlemlenmi¸stir. Ticarete konu olmayan mallar enasyon hedeemesi tümd¬¸s ¸soklara kar¸s¬ temel makroekonomik de¼gi¸skenlerde en az tepkiyi yarat-m¬¸st¬r. Yurtiçi ¸soklar bak¬m¬ndan politika kurallar¬n¬n olu¸sturdu¼gu dinamik-ler farkl¬l¬k gösterir. Taylor kural¬ve sabit para arz¬uygulamas¬nda ticaretekonu olan mallar verimlilik ¸soku hariç her ¸sokta orta seviyede tepkiler eldeedilmektedir.Anahtar Sözcükler: DGD, Para Politikalar¬Kurallar¬, Türkiye

In this thesis a dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model with monop-olistic competition and price stickiness is constructed in order to comparethe macroeconomic implications of four alternative monetary policy rulesfor Turkey. The analyzed policy rules are non-tradable ination targeting,money peg, exchange rate peg and a Taylor rule. The equilibrium dynamicsof small open economy are generated through exogenous shocks to domesticproductivity level, government expenditures, foreign interest rate and foreignprice level. I nd that signicantly di¤erent dynamics in terms of magnitudeare observed in the rst periods after the shocks. Against foreign shocks,the non-tradable ination targeting rule generates the smallest response inthe main macroeconomic variables. In terms of domestic shocks the dynam-ics that the policy rules entail di¤er. Under the Taylor rule and the moneypeg, intermediate level responses are obtained for all shocks except tradableproductivity shock.Keywords: DGE, Monetary Policy Rules, Turkey