Fotovoltaik sistemlerin kurulum aşamaları ve işletimdeki santrallerin gerçekleşen üretim değerlerinin simulasyon sonuçları ile karşılaştırılması

Abstract

Bu tez çalışmasında fotovoltaik güneş enerjisi sistemlerinin kurulum aşamaları ile ilgili bilgiler verilip, Türkiye'de şu anda işletimde olan santrallerin verim analizleri yapılmıştır. Santrallerin üretim değerleri simülasyon programı verileri ile karşılaştırılıp, öngörülen değerlerin ne kadar tutarlı olduğu gözlenmiştir.Çalışma altı bölümden oluşmaktadır.Birinci bölümde, fosil yakıtların dünya üzerindeki olumsuz etkilerinden bahsedilip, yenilenebilir enerjiye olan ihtiyacımız vurgulanmıştır. Dünya genelinde ülkelerin bu durum karşısında uyguladıkları yaptırımlar ve geleceğe yönelik anlaşmalar hakkında bilgiler verilmiştir.İkinci bölümde, fotovoltaik sistemlerin tarihsel gelişimine yer verilmiş ve günümüzde geldiği aşama, rakamlarla anlatılmıştır. Sistem bileşenleri hücre, inverter ve koruyucu ekipman maddeleri altında çeşitlendirilmiştir. Ayrıca, santral verimini etkileyen parametrelere de değinilmiş, güneş panelleri ve depolama sistemlerinin geleceği hakkında tahminlerde bulunulmuştur.Üçüncü bölümde fotovoltaik güneş enerjisi santrallerinin kurulum aşamaları anlatılmıştır. Bu bölüm izinler, ekipman seçimi, projelendirme ve uygulama süreçlerini kapsamaktadır. Süreç Türkiye'de kurulmuş üç projeden alınan tecrübeler yardımıyla, fotoğraflı örnekler ile aktarılmaya çalışılmıştır. Dördüncü bölümde kabul süreci ve sonrası hakkında bilgiler verilmiştir. Dağıtım şirketleri ve Tedaş'ın kabul aşamalarında dikkat ettikleri hususlar ve dokümantasyon işleri ile ilgili bilgilendirme yapılmıştır. Ayrıca işin son aşaması olan faturalandırma prosesinin detayları sunulmuştur.Beşinci bölümde Türkiye'de kurulmuş altı güneş enerjisi santrali üzerinden verim analizi yapılmıştır. Bu santrallerin aylık gerçekleşen üretim değerleri verilip, simulasyon programından çıkan değerler ile karşılaştırılmıştır. Altıncı bölümde sonuç ve öneriler yer almaktadır. Yapılan analiz neticesinde, GEPA ve MGM verileri kullanılarak oluşturulan simulasyon sonuçlarının üç santralde reel üretime çok yakın olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Diğer üç santralde ise tahmini üretim değerinden %6 ile %12 arasında daha fazla üretim gerçekleşmiştir.

This thesis gives information about photovoltaic system installation processes and analyzes relation between the realized generation and simulation values for the six plants in operation. When solar plants' production values are compared with simulation program's data, observed results shows that if there is a consistency with the estimated production values.This study consists of six sections.First part, mentions the negative effects of fossil fuels and the need of renewable energy sources. Also, it gives information about how the countries apply enforcements against the situation and emerging agreements all over the world. In order to make quick and controlled transition of energy source usage, Kyoto Protocol is emerged. Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement which decreases greenhouse gas effects and sets some targets to industrialized countries. In addition to that, Kyoto Protocol is first signed in the year of 1997, came into force in 16 February 2005 and 191 country and European Union joined by year of May 2010. Between the years of 2008 and 2012 which is the first period of obligation, there was a target to decrease the total greenhouse gas emission under %5 percent of 1990's greenhouse gas emission level. Kyoto Protocol was unsuccessful because of absence of USA and developing countries which do not follow their requirements. Thus, Paris agreement is emerged. In this agreement, global temperature rise aimed to steady under 2°C.Energy developments are being followed by many governmental institutions and associations. So, these ventures are determining country strategies. According to World Energy Outlook (WEO), energy demand will increase %30 between the years 2017 and 2035 and renewable energy has the biggest growth as proportion in this rise. Photovoltaic energy will be the most significant energy source in low carbon fuel category under the leaderships of China and India until the year of 2040. Thus, renewable energy is expected to rise %40 of it's share in the market. In European Union, renewable energy capacity will go up %80 beginning from 2030 and wind energy has the biggest portion of this massive rise.Second part clarifies historical development of photovoltaic systems and current situation indicated with the numbers. System components are named as cell, inverter and safety equipment. Moreover, second part underlines the parameters that effect solar plant's efficiency and estimations of future of the solar panels and storage systems.Photovoltaic energy shows enormous development day by day and on behalf of following this trend, Turkey joined unlicensed system installations in the year of 2014. When, first unlicensed electricity production regulation arise in 2012, unlicensed solar park's upper limit was 500kW. After that, this upper limit revised to 1MW level by the new regulation in 30 March 2013. Additionally, companies need to get license to install above this level. For installing licensed solar plants, government gave 600MW capacity to investors. For this 600MW, TEİAŞ determines some regions and if there is demand above this capacity investors compete in the contest. There were 496 applications with 8900MW demand in the contest in 2015. It is obvious that, there are many investors who want to invest for solar energy. With necessary regulations and removing the parameters that inhibits development of solar energy, it is possible to reach high capacity levels.Components which are used in solar energy systems are explained in this part. Solar panels are examined as first, second and third generation. First generation silicon based solar panels are consist of monocrystalline and polycrystalline cells. Second generation includes thin-film solar cells. These are; Cadmium Tellurid (CdTe), Cadmium Indium Gallium Selenide (CIGS) and Amorphous silicon. Lastly, the third generation contains perovskite and organic PV which are easy to produce and have tendency to increase its efficiency. Thus, this type of solar panel will be very popular in the future. On the other hand, inverters explained in three parts; which are micro, string and central inverter. Besides, safety equipment which are essential parts of solar system are explained in this part.Development of storage devices is very important to make the renewable energy more efficient. Today, renewable energy has a great disadvantage because it does not operate as a 100% available facility like fossil fueled power plants. Removing this negativity is dependent on the progress of storage technology. Today, in the development of storage technology, lithium ion batteries are the leading players. Although this technology has made significant progress over time, there are still many ways to get it. Especially, there is a significant decline in battary costs in recent years. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance report, there will be %70 decrease in lithium ion battary cost until the year of 2030. However, this number still not the intended level of cost. But of course, these developments are very crucial turning points for energy storage systems and electrical vehicles.In the third part, solar plants installation processes are given. This part covers permissions, equipment choice, project designing and implementation processes. With the help of gathered experiences from three solar plant project in Turkey, processes demonstrated with photos. Electricity generation from solar energy is divided into two as licensed and unlicensed. If the producer have the authority to sell the energy to the free market, the power plant is called as licenced power plant. In order to set up licensed power plants, first it is necessary to make a capacity declaration to EPDK by TEIAS and determine the appropriate technical areas. Following, the evaluation process made by EPDK, the connection points are determined. If more than one application is submitted at the same connection point, the competition is organized and the company giving the highest contribution per MW, wins the competition. The winner of the competition must first obtain a certificate of associate degree and start the first phase of the project such as approval, permit, expropriation and project designing with this certificate. Associate degree is given for a certain period. Following the establishment of the power plant, the investor must also obtain a production license issued by EPDK to sell electricity.The first unlicensed solar plants are installed in 2014 and there are 4,5GW photovoltaic system installed until the first quarter of 2018. According to unlicensed electricity production regulation, power plants can sell energy to grid system and unit price is 13, 3$/cent/kWh. To earn this warranty, power plant owners need to pass through long application process. This process' steps are; getting invitation letter, preparing TEDAŞ application documents, TEDAŞ approval and connection agreement and these steps take around six or seven months.Project designing consists of some processes; preparing layout plan and choosing steel structure type, static calculation and electrical calculation. Before this processes, land choice is a crucial factor that affects project's cost and efficiency. Selecting lands which are close to grid connection and easy to grade also provides big advantages on installation and operating. If the installation process manage by educated people, the construction processes will be completed on time. In addition to this, test procedures helps to reveal potential errors and response at the right time after installation process.Fourth part gives information about acceptance process and the rest of it. Also, the part explains documentation process and key elements which are considered by electricity distribution companies and TEDAŞ at the approval stage. The last stage is invoicing process and it is given with the details.After delivering all the permit documents, TEDAŞ committee visit the site for plant approval with an authorized person from distribution company and civil engineer (generally faculty member from universities). The most important thing at approval is occupational health and safety. Because of that, committee pay attention about if the plant is in a safe operating condition and warning signs. In addition, the most important point in accepting electricity generation facilities is that the materials in the application are overlapped with the materials in the project and they are made in accordance with the standards specified in the workmanship. After meeting these two important issues, it is very unlikely that there will be a problem with the plant during approval.In the fifth part, there are six efficiency analysis which are gathered from installed solar plants in Turkey. Monthly production values are compared with simulation program's data. Firstly, meteorology program's analyze is given. In order to find optimum meteorology program, GEPA and MGM values are compared with PVGIS-Classic, CMSAF, Meteonorm 7.1 and NASA values. However, none of these four program gives accurate results. Because of that, in site's region GEPA and MGM values entered manually into the system. PVSyst program used as a simulation program which is commonly using in solar sector and it gives the monthly production estimates. It makes the monthly comparison possible with the realized values. So, the charts in this part give the comparison for all sites both in monthly and yearly. Also, this charts make easier to understand the problems by comparing the simulation and realized values.Lastly, the sixth part includes the conclusions and recommendations. According to GEPA and MGM, the simulation results are very close to real values for three solar plants. Besides, other three solar plants produce %6 to %12 more than expected production value. It is because of both irradiation difference for that year and the unexpected weather condition.